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Predict changes in sports' polularity over the next 25 yrs

  • You (and bkmalik) should be careful extracting market research with a sample size of 1 to make broad conclusions.

    And, FWIW, soccer has grown massively in Australia since they moved from the Oceanian federation to the Asian one.

    Personally, my views on different sports are closer to bkmalik's and your stereotypical Australian. I play rugby and get up in the middle of the night in Europe to watch NFL, NBA, and Duke games, and I pretty much only watch major soccer games in bars for the group experience.

    However, it seems I'm not the majority. There are strong trends in the US that don't include me.

    Soccer has some things going for it that have made it popular everywhere else in the world, including outside of its natural areas.

    HoopheadVII

  • MLS does not equal soccer in my view and argument. That's where I think we are differing.

    If your argument was something along the lines of general interest in soccer will continue to grow and US interest in EPL and/or championship league soccer could outpace MLB interest (so far as national TV ratings and marketing are concerned) in 25 years then I'd concede you have a chance at being correct. Especially since MLB has transitioned to regional/local interest (that's where teams are making big $$ today, see the local TV deals) being the driving factor.

    But I simply can't accept the notion that the bottom of the barrel league that is the MLS will come close to catching or passing MLB as a business enterprise, especially within the next 25 years.

    bkmalik

  • jgdomino said...

    just think of how much success D.C United has had and how much Success the Caps have had.. One has one multiple titles the other has made the playoffs a few times, yet one has tons of bandwagon fans and the other people don't even know they exist. As they say ROCK THE RED..

    Whoever keeps quoting attendance for MLS please explain to me how 18k Once a week is impressive. If baseball, or hockey were played once a week you would have huge attendance numbers across the board. 18 K once a week usually on a weekend is not impressive.

    The Capitals had a 22 year head start on DC United and the NHL had a 80 year start on MLS these kind of things don't happen overnight. As far as MLS goes, it has its successes expansion/attendence simply still being around and to this point its strugles, mainly TV ratings. For us who like MLS and get excited about its future, I think most of us see it as a process. 10-11 years ago it was on its death bed, teams folded, owners consolidated and it's future looked iffy. Since then they have added 8 teams, built 10 stadiums, and added a major addidas sponsorship, added shirt sponsors and a national TV deal. Yes you might not watch or know anything about MLS but that is part of the reason you don't understand why people think its got a great chance for future success because you don't understand where it was and how far it has come in such a relative short amount of time.

    WIC

  • bkmalik said...

    MLS does not equal soccer in my view and argument. That's where I think we are differing.

    I understand what you are saying and agree that soccer does not necessarily =MLS(especially in its current context) but they are so strongly connected that for me, its hard for me to believe that if european club soccer leagues and tournaments were getting strong consistent TV numbers it wouldn't carry over to MLS. I know MLS isnt the EPL or La Liga but come on its a top 10-15 league in the world with the infrastrucutre to handle such a rise. They are just to closely connected to see a scenario in which the popularity of worldwide soccer doesnt improve the status of MLS. Even right now, MLS is 1 or 2 players away from doubling/tripling there TV ratings so its tough to say it can't and will never happen for this league.

    WIC

  • MLS is definitely on the right track. I don't get the idea that they shouldn't have expanded to Canada though. Toronto is like the 9th biggest city on the continent, Montreal is 16th and Vancouver is 25th. You have huge population centers with an audience much more receptive to a "European" sport. Seems like a good fit to me.

    macterp

  • Soccer will definitely pass hockey.

    BCiB

  • HoopheadVII said...

    You (and bkmalik) should be careful extracting market research with a sample size of 1 to make broad conclusions.

    And, FWIW, soccer has grown massively in Australia since they moved from the Oceanian federation to the Asian one.

    Personally, my views on different sports are closer to bkmalik's and your stereotypical Australian. I play rugby and get up in the middle of the night in Europe to watch NFL, NBA, and Duke games, and I pretty much only watch major soccer games in bars for the group experience.

    However, it seems I'm not the majority. There are strong trends in the US that don't include me.

    Soccer has some things going for it that have made it popular everywhere else in the world, including outside of its natural areas.

    I have a bunch of Australian friends. Pretty much all of them are insane sports fans, but soccer is at-best a distant 4th place among their sports interest (at least among my friends and their friends). AFL is the overwhelming first, followed by rugby and cricket. They were all jazzed up about the soccer world cup but I think the only time I ever heard them talking about Australian soccer was because one of them used to date an Australian soccer player.

    MisterSmiley

  • bkmalik said...

    I'd bet the US doesn't make the WC final in my lifetime (I'm in my early 30s).

    If there were a way to collect on a bet from a dead person, I'd probably take the other side at even money.

    HoopheadVII

  • bkmalik said...

    MLS does not equal soccer in my view and argument. That's where I think we are differing.

    If your argument was something along the lines of general interest in soccer will continue to grow and US interest in EPL and/or championship league soccer could outpace MLB interest (so far as national TV ratings and marketing are concerned) in 25 years then I'd concede you have a chance at being correct. Especially since MLB has transitioned to regional/local interest (that's where teams are making big $$ today, see the local TV deals) being the driving factor.

    But I simply can't accept the notion that the bottom of the barrel league that is the MLS will come close to catching or passing MLB as a business enterprise, especially within the next 25 years.

    This was my original statement:

    "I'd bet even money that soccer will be the most popular sport in the US in 25 years."

    Apparently, we're not differing.

    HoopheadVII

  • MisterSmiley said...

    I have a bunch of Australian friends. Pretty much all of them are insane sports fans, but soccer is at-best a distant 4th place among their sports interest (at least among my friends and their friends). AFL is the overwhelming first, followed by rugby and cricket. They were all jazzed up about the soccer world cup but I think the only time I ever heard them talking about Australian soccer was because one of them used to date an Australian soccer player.

    I get that - and since I play rugby, most of the Australians I know share the same views. All I said was that soccer has grown significantly there since they moved to the Asian confederation, and I've seen data to back it up.

    HoopheadVII

  • macterp said...

    MLS is definitely on the right track. I don't get the idea that they shouldn't have expanded to Canada though. Toronto is like the 9th biggest city on the continent, Montreal is 16th and Vancouver is 25th. You have huge population centers with an audience much more receptive to a "European" sport. Seems like a good fit to me.

    Hahaha if u want to include canada. Then hockey will pwn soccer forever. Soccer is boring deal with it. Americans don't have the attention span to watch soccer on a mass scale. Especially when you have like the 7th or 8th best league in the world.

    Pic Sigs are for losers.

    jgdomino

  • How am I supposed to take this sport seriously?

    DTotD: 12 red cards in kick-happy Brazilian brawl | Dirty Tackle - Yahoo! Sports

    From the blog Dirty Tackle: Votuporanguense beat Fernandopolis 2-1 in a Campeonato Paulista second division (the fourth tier of the Sao Paulo state championship) match that ended with a brawl and 12 red cards. The unrest began when the winning side's striker was taken down by … Continue reading →

    sports.yahoo.com

    PantsEnFuego

  • jgdomino said...

    Hahaha if u want to include canada. Then hockey will pwn soccer forever. Soccer is boring deal with it. Americans don't have the attention span to watch soccer on a mass scale. Especially when you have like the 7th or 8th best league in the world.

    We all wish we had the 7th or 8th best league in the world

    lazy

  • soccer is an event in america not a sport...people join fan clubs for the funy matching hats and scarves not because they care about the team...they like having an excuse to go to a bar at 7am and feeling a part of something...they watch the world cup once every four years like people watch the olympics...its a nice get together outdoors to have your kids run around and get some good excercise for two hours without every having to fail by striking out missing a jump shot or fumbling a football...

    and theres absolutely nothing wrong with any of that....but very few people actually care about a specific team to the point of knowing stats win loss records ect ....and honestly i dont think that many people like the game itself nearly as much as they pretend to

    its a weird dichotomy in that the number of people invloved with soccer in some way is much much higher than the number of people who actually enjoy the sport....its much cooler (and easier) to say you love soccer than it is to actually like soccer

    and at the heart of the matter this is why it will never compare to any of the big four north american sports leagues even if at times you can point to higher numbers of eyes on the sport

    This post was edited by 5th and lehigh on 6/12/2012 at 1:08 PM

    5th and lehigh

  • 5th and lehigh said...

    soccer is an event in america not a sport...people join fan clubs for the funy matching hats and scarves not because they care about the team...they like having an excuse to go to a bar at 7am and feeling a part of something...they watch the world cup once every four years like people watch the olympics...its a nice get together outdoors to have your kids run around and get some good excercise for two hours without every having to fail by striking out missing a jump shot or fumbling a football...

    and theres absolutely nothing wrong with any of that....but very few people actually care about a specific team to the point of knowing stats win loss records ect ....and honestly i dont think that many people like the game itself nearly as much as they pretend to

    its a weird dichotomy in that the number of people invloved with soccer in some way is much much higher than the number of people who actually enjoy the sport....its much cooler (and easier) to say you love soccer than it is to actually like soccer

    and at the heart of the matter this is why it will never compare to any of the big four north american sports leagues even if at times you can point to higher numbers of eyes on the sport

    Who are these people you speak of that pretend to like soccer in this country...I'm dying to know

    MonarchTerp

  • MLB last year drew over 75,000,000 for the regular season. The Orioles affiliates drew over 1,400,000. For comparisons sake the Nationals drew a shade over 1,000,000 and the Marlins did 1,200,000. Using the 1.2MM as the average (based on my exhaustive study of 3 teams) we extrapolate that to another 36,000,000. That makes 111,000,000 people who actually WENT to a professional baseball game last year, in just the regular season.

    Noah Cross ●

  • MonarchTerp said...

    Who are these people you speak of that pretend to like soccer in this country...I'm dying to know

    http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/03/03/80-the-idea-of-soccer/

    These people are all over the place. They all think that they are so cool and liberal and European and hipsters because they LOVE soccer. There is no "cooler" sport to root for than soccer in many groups of people.

    Derry

  • 5th and lehigh said...

    soccer is an event in america not a sport...people join fan clubs for the funy matching hats and scarves not because they care about the team...they like having an excuse to go to a bar at 7am and feeling a part of something...they watch the world cup once every four years like people watch the olympics...its a nice get together outdoors to have your kids run around and get some good excercise for two hours without every having to fail by striking out missing a jump shot or fumbling a football...

    and theres absolutely nothing wrong with any of that....but very few people actually care about a specific team to the point of knowing stats win loss records ect ....and honestly i dont think that many people like the game itself nearly as much as they pretend to

    its a weird dichotomy in that the number of people invloved with soccer in some way is much much higher than the number of people who actually enjoy the sport....its much cooler (and easier) to say you love soccer than it is to actually like soccer

    and at the heart of the matter this is why it will never compare to any of the big four north american sports leagues even if at times you can point to higher numbers of eyes on the sport

    100% agree with this. Hockey actually has some similar trends.

    WMTerp12

  • 5th and lehigh said...

    soccer is an event in america not a sport...people join fan clubs for the funy matching hats and scarves not because they care about the team...they like having an excuse to go to a bar at 7am and feeling a part of something...they watch the world cup once every four years like people watch the olympics...its a nice get together outdoors to have your kids run around and get some good excercise for two hours without every having to fail by striking out missing a jump shot or fumbling a football...

    and theres absolutely nothing wrong with any of that....but very few people actually care about a specific team to the point of knowing stats win loss records ect ....and honestly i dont think that many people like the game itself nearly as much as they pretend to

    its a weird dichotomy in that the number of people invloved with soccer in some way is much much higher than the number of people who actually enjoy the sport....its much cooler (and easier) to say you love soccer than it is to actually like soccer

    and at the heart of the matter this is why it will never compare to any of the big four north american sports leagues even if at times you can point to higher numbers of eyes on the sport

    All you are saying is that they are different level of fandoms which imo isn't different from any other sport in this country. The king of the bandwagon fan in this country is the NFL and its not really close. And lol at thinking you can't fail at anything when playing soccer, soccer is no different from any other youth sport, it takes you about 5-10 minutes to figure out who is any good, who is ok, and who is lol bad.

    WIC

  • Yeah I don't understand how ppl who wear scarves and hats are any different than those who buy NFL jerseys and are really just there for the tailgating. I understand the NFL is #1 in popularity, but every single sport has fans who are there for the event rather than fandom.

    And LOL at not failing in soccer.

    lazy

  • 5th and lehigh said...

    soccer is an event in america not a sport...people join fan clubs for the funy matching hats and scarves not because they care about the team...they like having an excuse to go to a bar at 7am and feeling a part of something...they watch the world cup once every four years like people watch the olympics...its a nice get together outdoors to have your kids run around and get some good excercise for two hours without every having to fail by striking out missing a jump shot or fumbling a football...

    and theres absolutely nothing wrong with any of that....but very few people actually care about a specific team to the point of knowing stats win loss records ect ....and honestly i dont think that many people like the game itself nearly as much as they pretend to

    its a weird dichotomy in that the number of people invloved with soccer in some way is much much higher than the number of people who actually enjoy the sport....its much cooler (and easier) to say you love soccer than it is to actually like soccer

    and at the heart of the matter this is why it will never compare to any of the big four north american sports leagues even if at times you can point to higher numbers of eyes on the sport

    Good lord. This is dumb on a variety of levels.

    There are a bunch of people who like soccer and watch it far more often than every 4 years. Why would waking up at 7 am on a Saturday be a positive thing? I hate when my team has an early game on Saturdays because I hate getting up early.

    LOL at not failing at soccer. The reason so many kids stop playing it when they're 10 is because they realize they suck at it. It's literally no different than any other sport. Kids play for a while, realize they eventually suck at it, and then stop playing. We do the same thing in baseball, football, basketball, etc. We just reach the "I suck" point at different ages.

    Plenty of people know the basics about their teams. There are bandwagon fans in every sport who can't tell you win/loss records, stats, etc. Hardly unique to soccer. Individual stats are far less important in soccer than they are in American sports, but that doesn't mean they don't follow a team.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • WIC said...

    All you are saying is that they are different level of fandoms which imo isn't different from any other sport in this country. The king of the bandwagon fan in this country is the NFL and its not really close. And lol at thinking you can't fail at anything when playing soccer, soccer is no different from any other youth sport, it takes you about 5-10 minutes to figure out who is any good, who is ok, and who is lol bad.

    You'll have to forgive him. There are no bandwagon fans in Philadelphia. Fan championships aren't won by bandwagoners.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • I can't see soccer being a huge sport ever. All of the athletes in the country play football and basketball right now. Soccer is a fall sport and competes with football for those same athletes. I would guess not many high level athletes select soccer over football. I know I'm partial to the sports I've played and meh about the ones I didn't.

    Fantasy games also dictate a lot of popularity. Can you play fantasy soccer?

    On top of all of that, its a pretty boring sport. Its hard to stay interested in a sport where 2-0 is a blowout.

    sniper_terp

  • sniper_terp said...

    I can't see soccer being a huge sport ever. All of the athletes in the country play football and basketball right now. Soccer is a fall sport and competes with football for those same athletes. I would guess not many high level athletes select soccer over football. I know I'm partial to the sports I've played and meh about the ones I didn't.

    I don't know if I'm 100% on board with this line of thought, but many people are arguing that with all of the stuff coming out about head injuries and football that parents are going to start steering kids away from it. I can't see basketball losing much popularity, but I don't think it's implausible for football to. For one thing it basically has no where to go but down at this point, and then there is the head injury issue that could start to affect the game.

    neal990

  • sniper_terp said...

    I can't see soccer being a huge sport ever. All of the athletes in the country play football and basketball right now. Soccer is a fall sport and competes with football for those same athletes. I would guess not many high level athletes select soccer over football. I know I'm partial to the sports I've played and meh about the ones I didn't.

    Fantasy games also dictate a lot of popularity. Can you play fantasy soccer?

    On top of all of that, its a pretty boring sport. Its hard to stay interested in a sport where 2-0 is a blowout.

    Plus this country is full of fatties so soccer isn't the sport for them

    lazy

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