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Predict changes in sports' polularity over the next 25 yrs

  • sweeper said...

    The point is that ESPN is "all in" when it comes to pushing soccer. They have the power to shape public behavior/interest as much as any other sports media entity. That alone is a huge step for soccer that will grow the sport significantly going forward.

    This is true, but they did not get the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, so we will have to see how committed they remain when they don't have the rights to the world's biggest sporting event.

    terps687 ●

  • terps687 said...

    This is true, but they did not get the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, so we will have to see how committed they remain when they don't have the rights to the world's biggest sporting event.

    They've got EPL though, lots of US soccer and Euro, so they're not getting out of that market.

    PaulUMD

  • WIC said...

    A huge issue facing Lacrosse is that it's a shitty, boring sport.

    FTFY

    Overlord NJT

  • MisterSmiley said...

    I agree with everything Hoophead posted, except that I don't really expect the NFL to drop all that much in popularity. The super bowl and fantasy are good tools to retain the casual fans.

    Sure.. but what about changing demographics and money from the rest of the world? I think NBA will a bigger threat to the NFL than soccer in about 15 years.

    "Anyone who talks about Jordan Williams leaving knows nothing about basketball. Absolutely nothing" - Hogie 02/27/2011

    TheCardinalTerp

  • HoopheadVII said...

    I moved to Europe to work for the marketing agency for the UEFA Champions League in 1998. Until about 2006, it was work to explain to people what I did. There were a few Americans I knew that followed it, and a few people on this board that cared. Over the last 5-6 years, awareness has grown massively among casual fans. When I say "Champions League" now, most people know what I'm talking about.

    That's great, but the people who actually care about the CL are a small minority even among people considered "hardcore" sports fan. It's easy to grow from no interest at all to some interest. It's a bit precarious to extrapolate that out to infinity and determine that it's going to surpass the NFL. You're arguing that people are suddenly going to take massive interest in a sport where the teams they choose to root for have no real connection to them at all and for which, in all practicality, going to a game is a once in a lifetime event. That would be a pretty big departure from everything that's been true about sports for 150+ years in this country.

    Tabe ●

  • Don't think soccer has a chance at matching the NFL or NBA, but I see no reason MLS can't compete with or beat MLB or NHL 20-30 years from now. Demographics are key, plus most Americans will eventually get over the fact that we don't dominate/didn't invent soccer and won't look down on it in the way they currently do. With the money and sheer numbers of people/potential players in the States, there's literally no limit to how good soccer/MLS can get if the right investments are made.

    PaulUMD

  • PaulUMD said...

    Don't think soccer has a chance at matching the NFL or NBA, but I see no reason MLS can't compete with or beat MLB or NHL 20-30 years from now. Demographics are key, plus most Americans will eventually get over the fact that we don't dominate/didn't invent soccer and won't look down on it in the way they currently do. With the money and sheer numbers of people/potential players in the States, there's literally no limit to how good soccer/MLS can get if the right investments are made.

    NHL sure. MLB? Not so much. "Demographics" will help major league baseball as well. The idea of it being a sport that is on the decline doesn't really align with their revenue numbers, attendance, international growth, etc.

    Tabe ●

  • The NFL fades to an extent. MLB over takes them as the +1 pro sports.

    ErnieMcCracken

  • Hogie said...

    We're Americans. We expect the best of the best. We're never going to get to a point where we can afford the best soccer players in the world, and even if we could afford a few, the MLS still wouldn't be anywhere near the best soccer league in the world. And even then, we wouldn't embrace it if it's a bunch of foreigners running around (Canadian hockey players don't count as foreigners obviously).

    We're tremendously spoiled in having the unquestioned best of the best leagues in all 4 of our major sports.

    Yup. MLS will never be the top league in the world in my lifetime. There are just too many good leagues in other great countries for it to happen.

    This post was edited by lazy on 6/9/2012 at 7:58 PM

    lazy

  • terps687 said...

    If you look at TV ratings there is no Big 4 now, hockey's ratings are anemic. There is just a big 3. I could definitely see a new big 3 of football, basketball, and soccer emerging in the next 25-50 years.

    Conventional TV ratings for everything are collapsing, and that will only continue.
    And MLB is actually on a resurgence, not a decline. And it is hugely popular in a lot of Latin America, so it's not going anywhere.

    This post was edited by bkmalik on 6/9/2012 at 9:39 PM

    bkmalik

  • bkmalik said...

    Conventional TV ratings for everything are collapsing, and that will only continue.

    Not if you're the NFL.

    sweeper

  • what did i sleep through that's causing people in this thread to believe that soccer could ever overtake baseball in popularity in america? that's lol funny to me, and i'm a soccer fan who lost all interest in baseball several years ago...

    i don't see soccer "taking over" any of the "big 4" sports in the next 50 years, and i would hope that it's not usa soccer/mls's goal to do so...

    the goal for the soccer powers that be in the usa should be to make it the "big 5", which is actually somewhat feasible, although mls has a very tough road unless they can somehow consistently start attracting the top talent from around the world and usa soccer can start developing the home talent out of the womb like the rest of the soccer crazy world does.

    jmo

    hectorjones

  • hectorjones said...

    what did i sleep through that's causing people in this thread to believe that soccer could ever overtake baseball in popularity in america? that's lol funny to me, and i'm a soccer fan who lost all interest in baseball several years ago...

    i don't see soccer "taking over" any of the "big 4" sports in the next 50 years, and i would hope that it's not usa soccer/mls's goal to do so...

    the goal for the soccer powers that be in the usa should be to make it the "big 5", which is actually somewhat feasible, although mls has a very tough road unless they can somehow consistently start attracting the top talent from around the world and usa soccer can start developing the home talent out of the womb like the rest of the soccer crazy world does.

    jmo

    I'd argue soccer (not MLS, but all soccer in general) is already more popular than hockeyhere . You could respond that isn't a fair argument because it's not apples to apples and that's fine.

    Regardless it's ridiculous to assert that soccer won't clearly pass hockey in the near future. Stanley Cup games get like 2 million viewers, it's not exactly a big mountain to climb.

    terps687 ●

  • terps687 said...

    I'd argue soccer (not MLS, but all soccer in general) is already more popular than hockeyhere . You could respond that isn't a fair argument because it's not apples to apples and that's fine.

    Regardless it's ridiculous to assert that soccer won't clearly pass hockey in the near future. Stanley Cup games get like 2 million viewers, it's not exactly a big mountain to climb.

    Plus, the fastest growing areas of the country are hardly hockey hotbeds.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • I know many people who "follow" european soccer, and out of them about half actually will go to bars and wake up super early to watch their favorite teams. Even if the numbers that are interested enough in soccer to wake up early and watch europeans increases, it won't matter until you get those fans interested in soccer here on American soil.

    Baseball has seen a decline in popularity, but I think it adjusted. New stadiums are all smaller and the focus is more on the game experience rather than just packing as many people into a stadium as possible. The idea that it could ever fall to be as unliked as the MLS is just unfathomable.

    neal990

  • Do people just discount the fact that an entire country right on our border watches and cares about hockey? I never understand why we pretend Canadian ratings don't matter.That cash still goes straight into the NHL's coffers. Game 6 of the Chicago/Philly series in 2010 drew about 7 million US viewers and another 4 in Canada. That's not the NBA. It never will be. But it's not a joke, either.

    macterp

  • I'm guessing boxing officially dies.

    swemmm ●

  • Tabe said...

    That's great, but the people who actually care about the CL are a small minority even among people considered "hardcore" sports fan. It's easy to grow from no interest at all to some interest. It's a bit precarious to extrapolate that out to infinity and determine that it's going to surpass the NFL. You're arguing that people are suddenly going to take massive interest in a sport where the teams they choose to root for have no real connection to them at all and for which, in all practicality, going to a game is a once in a lifetime event. That would be a pretty big departure from everything that's been true about sports for 150+ years in this country.

    First, I said I would probably bet even money on whether soccer would become the most popular sport. That's different from saying a) it will definitely happen, and b) that the MLS will become the most popular league.

    I think there are a few key factors as to why this could happen:

    1) The NFL has the potential for significant decline over the next 25 years. I think player safety issues have the potential to significantly decrease youth participation and I think the NFL loses a big chunk of its USP if it stops marketing the big hits.

    2) Demographic changes will lead to a relative increase in soccer popularity

    3) ESPN is committed to promoting soccer

    4) Independent of those factors, soccer would still gain significant popularity as it becomes more available to Americans through different means of content distribution

    Personally, I'm a casual soccer fan at best. The only soccer I'll watch this year is EURO2012 at bars. I get up in the middle of the night to watch Duke games, Redskins games, and a bunch of NBA Playoff games, but I forgot when the Champions League Final was being played this year until someone reminded me the day of the game.

    I'm not a soccer fanboi, but I do understand something about sports marketing.

    HoopheadVII

  • Te popularity of fantasy football will negate the decline in interest from the "big hits". More regular people care about the NFL only because of fantasy.

    bkmalik

  • bkmalik said...

    Te popularity of fantasy football will negate the decline in interest from the "big hits". More regular people care about the NFL only because of fantasy.

    I think it's an iffy proposition to bank on the overwhelming popularity of fantasy football 25 years from now, particularly if the sport as a whole starts to lose some popularity.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • tecmoHOOperbowl said...

    I think it's an iffy proposition to bank on the overwhelming popularity of fantasy football 25 years from now, particularly if the sport as a whole starts to lose some popularity.

    True, but I believe the fantasy bubble will prop up any negative implications for the nfl for at least another decade, which would leave only 15 years for soccer to bridge the gap to become the most popular sport (as HH suggested).

    And fwiw, I don't think any sporting event ever will match the TV popularity of the Super Bowl as it is now. The nfl will decline and likely get passed, but whatever takes its place won't see viewership like the super bowl has in the US.

    This post was edited by bkmalik on 6/10/2012 at 9:30 AM

    bkmalik

  • bkmalik said...

    True, but I believe the fantasy bubble will prop up any negative implications for the nfl for at least another decade, which would leave only 15 years for soccer to bridge the gap to become the most popular sport (as HH suggested).

    And fwiw, I don't think any sporting event ever will match the TV popularity of the Super Bowl as it is now. The nfl will decline and likely get passed, but whatever takes its place won't see viewership like the super bowl has in the US.

    I certainly agree with that, and I said a while back in response to HoopHead's original post that I thought his predictions were far too ambitious for one generation (~25 years).

    I think the NFL is bound to decline in popularity at some point. At some point, whether it's player safety or consumers getting annoyed about having to listen to Merrill Hoge discuss the Seahawks' 2-deep in the middle of May on Sports Center, I think its popularity has to decline some in the hypothetical time span given. And I agree that soccer is probably in the best position to take advantage of any drop in the NFL's popularity. I don't see baseball getting more popular (though I don't foresee its demise either). Hockey's not going to do it. The NBA will absolutely grow worldwide, but I don't know how much it's going to grow in the US.

    However, it's obviously a HUGE leap to suggest it would become the most popular sport in the country in 25 years.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • PaulUMD said...

    Don't think soccer has a chance at matching the NFL or NBA, but I see no reason MLS can't compete with or beat MLB or NHL 20-30 years from now. Demographics are key, plus most Americans will eventually get over the fact that we don't dominate/didn't invent soccer and won't look down on it in the way they currently do. With the money and sheer numbers of people/potential players in the States, there's literally no limit to how good soccer/MLS can get if the right investments are made.

    If you think MLS will ever compete with MLB in our lifetime, please stop posting about sports.

    hgoodman ●

  • hgoodman said...

    If you think MLS will ever compete with MLB in our lifetime, please stop posting about sports.

    Agreed. MLS is extremely small time and MLB is as healthy as its been in probably 15 years.

    bkmalik

  • Once college football gets a real 8 or 16 team playoff it's going to make some huge strides in closing on the NFL. Don't think people realize how awesome it's going to be.

    WMTerp12

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