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jsh said...
Now, I don’t think the Orioles are a 96-win team, anymore than I believe they’re a 74-win team. Their +7 run differential is troubling, but, from the moment they added Manny Machado to the lineup, they outscored their opponents by 54 runs in 51 games. How do you marry that with the rest of the data?
In scouting, comps are used for projection. If a player looks like, or has the same arm action, or swing path as someone else, it reasons that it gives the scout a rough idea of how a player can develop. But there are always outliers. While PECOTA is modest in its assessment of Machado, it’s tough to find many 19-year-olds to compare his numbers to at the big-league level. The same could be said for any number of players on the Orioles roster. Was last year’s Chris Tillman with improved velocity and command a turning point? Or was it a fluke given his career numbers? Or was last year’s 30-homer season for Chris Davis the forebear of things to come, or just a fluky coincidence for a player with big power and contact issues? Trying to assess what this team is going to do is trickier than most. Guys develop at different rates, and with so many players holding a checkered major league history, but still entering their primes, it can be easy to convince yourself that either point is possible.
Projection is one of the things GM Dan Duquette is banking on. “I thought Chris Davis had a breakout year. Adam Jones, obviously has had some good years but had a really good year last year, Matt Wieters continues to improve and obviously we like what we saw from [Machado]. These guys are determined ballplayers. They want to be consistent major league ballplayers. I think they’ve developed a lot of really good habits that will help them, repeat and in some cases improve their production, and they’re serious about being good this year.”
We’re getting ready, likely a month from today, to do our own predictions. The AL East, and particularly the Orioles, are what I’m least looking forward to guessing on. To paraphrase Adam Jones, there’s a good chance I’ll end up looking like a fool, no matter which way I go.
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jsh said...
Now, I don’t think the Orioles are a 96-win team, anymore than I believe they’re a 74-win team. Their +7 run differential is troubling, but, from the moment they added Manny Machado to the lineup, they outscored their opponents by 54 runs in 51 games. How do you marry that with the rest of the data?
In scouting, comps are used for projection. If a player looks like, or has the same arm action, or swing path as someone else, it reasons that it gives the scout a rough idea of how a player can develop. But there are always outliers. While PECOTA is modest in its assessment of Machado, it’s tough to find many 19-year-olds to compare his numbers to at the big-league level. The same could be said for any number of players on the Orioles roster. Was last year’s Chris Tillman with improved velocity and command a turning point? Or was it a fluke given his career numbers? Or was last year’s 30-homer season for Chris Davis the forebear of things to come, or just a fluky coincidence for a player with big power and contact issues? Trying to assess what this team is going to do is trickier than most. Guys develop at different rates, and with so many players holding a checkered major league history, but still entering their primes, it can be easy to convince yourself that either point is possible.
Projection is one of the things GM Dan Duquette is banking on. “I thought Chris Davis had a breakout year. Adam Jones, obviously has had some good years but had a really good year last year, Matt Wieters continues to improve and obviously we like what we saw from [Machado]. These guys are determined ballplayers. They want to be consistent major league ballplayers. I think they’ve developed a lot of really good habits that will help them, repeat and in some cases improve their production, and they’re serious about being good this year.”
We’re getting ready, likely a month from today, to do our own predictions. The AL East, and particularly the Orioles, are what I’m least looking forward to guessing on. To paraphrase Adam Jones, there’s a good chance I’ll end up looking like a fool, no matter which way I go.
This post was edited by BCiB on 2/28/2013 at 9:44 AM
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Orioles Spring Training 2013