Online Now 1681

General Sports Water Cooler

A place for lively discussion for all other sports unrelated to Maryland athletics

On this Board 63
Record: 2758 (12/1/2012)

Online now 434
Record: 11761 (2/27/2012)

Boards ▾

Inside Scoop

The Web's No. 1 forum for coverage and discussion of Terps sports

Terps Sports

Visitor discussion of University of Maryland and college sports

General Sports Water Cooler

A place for lively discussion for all other sports unrelated to Maryland athletics

Off-Topic

Test/Feedback Forum

Feedback for IMS and 247Sports

The Ticket Exchange

Reply

Orioles Spring Training 2013

  • Flops said...

    I agree about Bourn. I am not a huge fan of signing Lohse (Marcum was my guy, and I'd rather trade for Norris if that is a viable option), but I wanted to provide some context of what the 23rd pick looks like. Without knowing what the odds that pick #23 will be valuable, talking in abstract about a "first round pick" is pointless since the #5 pick is worth much more than the #28 pick. Through my non-scientific example, we can see there is somewhere between a 25-40% chance it will have some impact on the major league level. In my OPINION, that shouldn't dissuade us from signing Bourn, who unquestionably would help the team, and it lessens the impact of potentially signing Lohse. If we don't sign Lohse, it shouldn't be because of the pick. It should be because he is a 34 year-old with a mediocre long-term track record who doesn't strike people out at a good rate. But, he is better than Saunders, healthier than Marcum and should cost less than Jackson, so I wouldn't call signing him "incredibly dumb" without seeing the terms he agrees to.

    Again, signing Lohse won't have me pumping my first in the air and changing this offseason to a success. Signing Bourn would

    I agree with your point, I'm just not a fan of Lohse so signing him and losing a draft pick would be a double whammy in my opinion.

    Why I wouldn't sign Kyle Lohse - Beyond the Box Score

    Kyle Lohse is one of baseball which usually is a clear indicator that an albatross is on the horizon.

    www.beyondtheboxscore.com

    jsh ●

  • jsh said...

    I agree with your point, I'm just not a fan of Lohse so signing him and losing a draft pick would be a double whammy in my opinion.

    The thing is, that article is likely what most GMs are thinking. That is why he is still unsigned while numerous inferior pitchers are. Is there not an opportunity then to take advantage of? If most of baseball's attitude is "this guy isn't worth 'it'", with 'it' being undefined at the moment, there is an opportunity to negotiate 'it' to something that does have value. What if you could get him for 2 years in the 20-24 mill range or something in that ballpark? That is less than the 13 mill/yr that it took to grab Dempster, Jackson and Haren, who are comparables

    Flops

  • terp7475 said...

    If the pitchers match their WAR from last year, I reckon that there is a 68% probability of the O's finishing between 74 and 86 wins. If they perform at a 2 standard deviation to the plus side, there is about a 5% probability that they exceed 92 wins.

    I think PECOTA has them at 74 wins.

    I apologize for further nerding up the thread, but there are some major fundamental statistical flaws in this paragraph.

    Titanterp

  • Tampa Bay Rays

    Top signing: LHP Jose Castillo, Venezuela, $1.55 million.
    Seven- and six-figure signings: RHP Jose Mujica (Venezuela), C David Rodriguez (Venezuela), C Eric Maria (Dominican Republic), LHP Frehumar Rivas (Venezuela), OF Angel Moreno (Dominican Republic), RHP Deivy Mendez (Dominican Republic).

    Tampa Bay landed some of the top international free agents in last year's signing class, but the Rays will also be the first team to face the harshest penalties for exceeding their bonus pool set forth in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

    The CBA limited every team to a $2.9 million bonus pool for the 2012-13 international signing period that began on July 2. The strongest penalty in the CBA is that any team that exceeds its international bonus pool by 15 percent or more will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign a player for more than $250,000 during the 2013-14 signing period. Since July 2, the Rays already have spent more than $3.7 million (not counting players signed for $50,000 or less, since there are exemptions for those players), which is 28 percent beyond their international pool.

    As a result, the Rays won't be able to sign anyone next year for more than $250,000 and probably won't make any major international splashes until July 2 either because of the tax. Going well beyond the bonus pool is a curious move, but the Rays did pull in a considerable amount of talent, including arguably the two best 16-year-old pitchers on the market. Given that their 90-win season last year will give them one of the lower bonus pools for the 2013-14 signing period, which many scouts believe is shaping up to be a down year for international talent, perhaps it will be a worthwhile gambit.

    BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: International Affairs: International Reviews: Tampa Bay Rays

    A free preview of Baseball Americas top international signings from 2012.

    www.baseballamerica.com

    fearthenoodle

  • Baltimore Orioles

    Top signing: LHP Yi-Hsiang Lin, Taiwan, $150,000.
    Six-figure signings: OF Carlos Rodriguez (Venezuela), 2B Yariel Vargas (Dominican Republic).
    Notable Cuban signings: OF Henry Urrutia

    In the Latin American amateur market, the Orioles were relatively quiet last year. They signed only two players from the region to six-figure bonuses, giving $100,000 each to Venezuelan outfielder Carlos Rodriguez and Yariel Vargas from the Dominican Republic. Rodriguez, who signed in November, trained with Alberto Rivas, is 6-foot-1, 175 pounds and impressed the Orioles with his potential to hit for power and stay in center field.

    Vargas, who was an outfielder when the Orioles signed him from the Arias and Goodman academy, moved to second base after signing. With average speed and below-average power from the right side of the plate, Vargas didn't profile well in the outfield, so the move to the dirt will be important for Vargas. He had some infield experience prior to signing, but he's learning how to handle the new position.

    The Orioles are close with Arias and Goodman (Ferreira was involved in a fantasy camp of theirs before his hiring) and they also signed 18-year-old Carlos Laureano from them for $50,000 in June. Laureano is a 6-foot-1 righthanded hitter with some power and a pull-oriented approach.

    The Orioles were also active in countries that typically don't produce professional baseball players. Baltimore added the only two players from Guatemala who signed with major league teams in 2012: 19-year-old center fielder Juan Aguilar ($75,000 in February) and 19-year-old outfielder Paolo Pezzarossi (video), who was the subject of a Guatemalan TV news report after he signed for $5,000 in May.

    Baltimore also signed 17-year-old New Zealand first baseman Pita Rona for $25,000 last year in January and 18-year-old Czech Republic lefthander Jan Novak for $40,000 in November. Novak pitched at the MLB European academy and posted a 2.45 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 22 innings in academy games from 2011-12. He also pitched at the 18U World Championships in South Korea in September, when he allowed 10 runs (six earned) in 10 innings with nine strikeouts and six walks.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by jsh on 2/11/2013 at 10:45 AM

    Unavailable

    Either this website doesn't exist or is not currently available.

    www.baseballamerica.com

    jsh ●

  • Flops said...

    The thing is, that article is likely what most GMs are thinking. That is why he is still unsigned while numerous inferior pitchers are. Is there not an opportunity then to take advantage of? If most of baseball's attitude is "this guy isn't worth 'it'", with 'it' being undefined at the moment, there is an opportunity to negotiate 'it' to something that does have value. What if you could get him for 2 years in the 20-24 mill range or something in that ballpark? That is less than the 13 mill/yr that it took to grab Dempster, Jackson and Haren, who are comparables

    2/20 is still "it" to me.

    Titanterp

  • Flops said...

    The thing is, that article is likely what most GMs are thinking. That is why he is still unsigned while numerous inferior pitchers are. Is there not an opportunity then to take advantage of? If most of baseball's attitude is "this guy isn't worth 'it'", with 'it' being undefined at the moment, there is an opportunity to negotiate 'it' to something that does have value. What if you could get him for 2 years in the 20-24 mill range or something in that ballpark? That is less than the 13 mill/yr that it took to grab Dempster, Jackson and Haren, who are comparables

    Ugh...I lost my reply to this. In short, Lohse doesn't miss a lot of bats, gives up a fair number of fly balls and would be transitioning from the weakest division to one of the strongest. I also don't like the fact he's going from a pitcher friendly HR ballpark to a hitter friendly HR park. I'd much rather have Haren or Jackson.

    jsh ●

  • Most Unimproved American League Teams

    1. Houston Astros
    2. New York Yankees
    3. Baltimore Orioles

    Nothing amazed us more during this entire survey than the votes flowing out of this precinct. We expected the Astros to swamp the most unimproved competition. Instead, it was stunningly close: The Astros showed up on 11 ballots, to the Yankees' nine. So what's up with that? We'll tell you what's up with that. The Yankees might wind up winning 40 more games than the Astros. But the Astros were already a 107-loss team, and their 2013 record is almost irrelevant in the context of their long-term (make that REALLY long-term) blueprint. The Yankees, on the other hand, are an outfit that has led us to believe the only acceptable outcome of any season involves confetti and massive champagne spritzing. So to see this team jettison its emergency closer (Rafael Soriano), its catcher (Russell Martin), its right fielder (Nick Swisher) and its latest, greatest Mr. October action figure (Raul Ibanez), among others, while adding only Kevin Youkilis and a bunch of low-budget free-agent lottery tickets (Travis Hafner, Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera, etc.) was apparently staggering to many of our voters. One described the Yankees as "the most unimproved good team." Another asked, though not entirely seriously: "Is someone going to pick the Yankees last? I know that's unlikely. But one of these years, all the age on that team is going to hit them. Right? Doesn't it have to?" Yeah, we guess so. But we still didn't see this vote coming. Did you?

    Fun Poll Fact: Incredibly, nine of the 15 teams in this league received at least one vote, including three (Red Sox, Indians and Twins) who got mentions in both the most improved and most unimproved balloting. And the voting for the third spot in our top three was extremely tight, with the Orioles (5 votes) barely edging the Rangers (4), Twins (3) and White Sox (3).

    MLB spring preview and offseason review - ESPN

    Let's shut down the Hot Stove and get spring started with a look at the best stories, best and worst free-agent signings, the most improved and least improved teams, players to watch and much more.

    espn.go.com

    jsh ●

  • I don't understand rankings like that. The offseason is a zero sum game. For someone to get better, someone has to get worse. When you essentially just bring back the exact same team the next year, you didn't improve, but you didn't lose anything. I don't see how we didn't have an almost exactly average offseason. Somehow, players who change teams are underrated for the team they leave and overrated for the team they go to, all by unbiased sources. It makes absolutely no sense.

    It is like:

    Atlanta: They improved so much, JUSTIN UPTON!!!
    Arizona: They improved so much, MARTIN PRADO!!!

    Titanterp

  • Hamilton at the best contract at 5/125 and Pagan at the worst contract at 4/40. Pagan is younger(slightly), isn't a head case, isn't a drug addict, isn't breaking down physically, isn't a pussy, and IS JUST AS GOOD.

    Titanterp

  • I'm not trying to make a point by asking this, but it's pretty unusual for free agents as prominent as Bourne and, to a lesser extent, Lohse to still be out there this far into the offseason, isn't it? Can anybody think of recent examples that prove that assertion wrong?

    aschaefe

  • Titanterp said...

    Hamilton at the best contract at 5/125 and Pagan at the worst contract at 4/40. Pagan is younger(slightly), isn't a head case, isn't a drug addict, isn't breaking down physically, isn't a pussy, and IS JUST AS GOOD.

    Agreed. Pretty stupid of Mr. Stark to say that.

    ReimoldPosse

  • aschaefe said...

    I'm not trying to make a point by asking this, but it's pretty unusual for free agents as prominent as Bourne and, to a lesser extent, Lohse to still be out there this far into the offseason, isn't it? Can anybody think of recent examples that prove that assertion wrong?

    Pretty sure it's never happened before to prominent FAs with no known red flags.

    jsh ●

  • bourn confuses me. he must want a shit-load of money and won't budge.

    AlphaOmega said... im sorry i was confusing...your "Superbowl" was the Redskins losing since you know that the Ravens cant win it all.

    TheHugeManatee

  • Bourn's situation is fairly unique. He has consistently been one of the most valuable players(#16 fWAR 09-12, #2 CF) in the league the last few years. He deserves to get paid big dollars and he knows it. However, no one is paying him for 2010-2012 and they don't want to give a huge contract to a guy north of 30 who relies that heavily on his legs. Most likely, he will get a longer term team, while greatly overperforming the first half and underperforming the second. Therefore, he fits best in a win now atmosphere. The problem is, every contender has to sacrifice a pick, but sacrificing a pick for a guy you perceive to be rapidly declining is dangerous.

    In short, no GM wants to be the guy who lost the Mike Trout pick to sign Chone Figgins.

    Titanterp

  • Bourn was hurt by Minnesota trading two CFers this offseason. I think at this point Bourn will hold out and hope some CF gets hurt.

    jsh ●

  • TheHugeManatee said...

    bourn confuses me. he must want a shit-load of money and won't budge.

    Well, look at it like this.

    Josh Hamilton got 5/125. He is 1 year older than Bourn. He has a drug history. He is oft injured. He had a rough finish to the year. Over the last 4 years, strictly by fWAR, Bourn has been better.

    That is why he is probably insulted by the numbers he is being offered. I think I saw 3/30 mentioned in an article. That is ridiculous.

    Titanterp

  • I'm a bit surprised the MLBPA got on board with the 'sign-a-free-agent-lose-a-draft-pick' thing. Lohse and Bourn would be signed to contracts by now without it. Theoretically, if these guys are still FAs at the beginning of the season, would it still cost a pick to sign them?

    I don't know what you mean, but it had the cadence of a joke.

    GhostOfEaston ●

  • GhostOfEaston said...

    I'm a bit surprised the MLBPA got on board with the 'sign-a-free-agent-lose-a-draft-pick' thing. Lohse and Bourn would be signed to contracts by now without it. Theoretically, if these guys are still FAs at the beginning of the season, would it still cost a pick to sign them?

    It is the fault of the player's ego. If you aren't worth 15MM, take the 1 year deal.

    I really think it should only apply to players leaving team control, though. Signing a FA, then letting them walk, and getting a pick is dumb.

    Titanterp

  • GhostOfEaston said...

    I'm a bit surprised the MLBPA got on board with the 'sign-a-free-agent-lose-a-draft-pick' thing. Lohse and Bourn would be signed to contracts by now without it. Theoretically, if these guys are still FAs at the beginning of the season, would it still cost a pick to sign them?

    It's been in play probably as long as FA itself. I'm a little surprised they'd allowed the number of protected picks to be reduced from 15 to 10 and allowed the language in the deal to change so that it was no longer the 10 worst records. I'm guessing they gave that up though so that they could overhaul the Type A/Type B system which was really hurting relief pitchers and to a lesser extent some position players.

    jsh ●

  • Buck has been there for a week.

    @Joelsherman1
    Thought I was getting late start to spring training but since Cashman and Girardi r both on flight I feel better #Yankees

    fearthenoodle

  • Titanterp said...

    I don't understand rankings like that. The offseason is a zero sum game. For someone to get better, someone has to get worse. When you essentially just bring back the exact same team the next year, you didn't improve, but you didn't lose anything. I don't see how we didn't have an almost exactly average offseason. Somehow, players who change teams are underrated for the team they leave and overrated for the team they go to, all by unbiased sources. It makes absolutely no sense.

    It is like:

    Atlanta: They improved so much, JUSTIN UPTON!!! Arizona: They improved so much, MARTIN PRADO!!!

    But we lost two (arguably three) starters without replacing them.

    We lost Reynolds. Our idea of a replacement is hoping Reimold and/or Betemit are healthier than they were last year

    We lost Saunders. Our idea of a replacement is hoping at least one of Britton, Arrieta or Matusz are a better starter than last year

    We also "lost" Andino (who I don't feel is a major loss, but he is no longer on the roster, so technically another lost starter), and our idea of a replacement is hoping Roberts will be healthier than last year. If you want to argue Casilla replaces Andino, I'm not going to argue the contrary, but as far as I know, Casilla is not presumed to be Plan A as a starter this year.

    So, by my count, we lost two or three starters (Reynolds, Saunders and Andino) and our replacements are all guys on last year's team who we are expecting to get more out of. Its definitely possible they could be better, but an average offseason is a net zero. Ours is a net -2.5 starters in my book

    Flops

  • Hey Duke, Jonah Keri is oooooonnnnn the phone.

    10 Minutes With Orioles GM Dan Duquette - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

    Dan Duquette is no stranger to statistical concepts in baseball. He hired an eager researcher named Ari Kaplan to build advanced scouting software and

    www.grantland.com

    aschaefe

  • And, to further my point, its not like we let those three guys go for some exciting prospect to step up. Is anyone excited about penciling in Roberts as an everyday 2b? Is anyone convinced Reimold can play 150 games? And, while I like all three, none of Britton, Matusz or Arrieta has me excited to hand 30 starts to right now. If this were next year and we were replacing Andino and Saunders with Schoop and Bundy, its a different story.

    Flops

  • Flops said...

    We lost Reynolds. Our idea of a replacement is hoping Reimold and/or Betemit are healthier than they were last year

    I'm sure I might meet some backlash but 2012 Mark Reynolds was not good. If Travis Ishikawa can hit .700 and continue to play above average to great defense at 1B than that's an upgrade over what Reynolds gave us. If you want to argue that Reynolds is going to bounce back at the plate this year or we took a hit in depth, I can understand that but I don't think losing 2012 Mark Reynolds is much of a loss.

    I'd also prefer Casilla over Andino. They're pretty even at the plate with Casilla getting the edge defensively and on the basepaths. I see what you're saying about Roberts but I think Buck will pull him sooner rather than later if he can't at least hit what Andino gave us last year. I accept that I could be wrong on that and it is something I worry about.

    jsh ●

Maryland
247Sports
Features
Resources
Connect

247Sports In partnership with CBS Sports