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Orioles Spring Training 2013

  • Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs has started looking at pitcher injuries and isolated three key traits, lower velocity, consistency late in games and strike zone percentage. I was a little curious if maybe the Orioles knew something about Saunders that we didn't and his graphs aren't exactly what you're looking for.

    http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/consistencyscore.php

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-big-games-game-breaking-down/

    attachmentattachment

    jsh ●

  • A (possibly) way too early look at the top-10 free agents for 2014:

    1. Robinson Cano
    2. Adam Wainwright
    3. Josh Johnson
    4. Jacoby Ellsbury
    5. Roy Halladay
    6. Shin-soo Choo
    7. Brian McCann
    8. Tim Lincecum
    9. Matt Garza
    10. Hunter Pence

    Others receiving votes: Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, Phil Hughes

    2014 Free Agent Power Rankings: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

    MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

    www.mlbtraderumors.com

    fearthenoodle ●

  • 3. Bud Norris, RHP, Astros — One of the last remaining assets on the Astros, Norris should become one of the most sought-after pitchers before the season or at the trading deadline. The Astros haven’t said they’d deal him, but neither did they shop Lowrie before the A’s swept in. The Astros probably could get a good haul for Norris. The Cardinals and Orioles are two to watch in this derby.

    David Prouty takes over as general counsel for baseball players’ union - Sports - The Boston Globe

    With Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Michael Weiner battling an inoperable brain tumor, David Prouty has been assigned Weiner’s duties as general counsel, a role he embraces on behalf of the players.

    bostonglobe.com

    fearthenoodle ●

  • I'm back bbabbyyyyyy!!!!!!!

    Took the offseason thread off, had to detox a bit from last seasons amazing run and enjoy the Ravens, couldn't be more excited for spring to come again. LEGGOOOOOO.

    Terp08 ●

  • I need a DirtyTerp Aquarium report.

    jsh ●

  • jsh said...

    I need a DirtyTerp Aquarium report.

    Several eyewitnesses report that Manny Machado was hitting on all the stingrays' girlfriends last Thursday.

    "And I try to har-mo-nize with songs the lonesome sparrow sings... There are no kings inside the Gates of Eden."

    dixonownsyou ●

  • jsh said...

    I need a DirtyTerp Aquarium report.

    ITS BRIAN MATUSZ'S BIRTHDAY TODAY!

    fearthenoodle ●

  • JDawgBBall9 said...

    You can pick basically any draft pick after like the top 5 or 10 or something and come up with a list of guys who majority weren't regular starters for more than a couple years. Its just how the draft works. Doesn't mean those picks don't have value to a club like the Orioles, who can't dick around in free agency like the Dodgers or Yankees.

    totally agree--we had no business even being in the discussion for Hamilton. That said, not signing Bourn seems like a can't miss opportunity to significantly upgrade at a reasonable price. Hopefully Reimold keeps his head straight, stays healthy and has his break-out year in which case I'm wrong. Call me crazy but trying to compete on the cheap in the AL East doesn't seem like a great strategy.

    cjterps98

  • I'll be honest, I feel I'm in the best shape of my life.

    jsh ●

  • jsh said...

    I'll be honest, I feel I'm in the best shape of my life.

    This is a lie.

    fearthenoodle ●

  • @TheRealJGuts
    If you're fortunate to see my good friend Brian Matusz today, give him a hug & spank. It's his b-day!(pic of either & I'll send signed ball)

    fearthenoodle ●

  • The Sun said this morning we still might trade for a bigger bat this spring? Who are/would we be targeting? That's my biggest disappointment in the offseason.

    terps687 ●

  • terps687 said...

    The Sun said this morning we still might trade for a bigger bat this spring? Who are/would we be targeting? That's my biggest disappointment in the offseason.

    Soriano would be my guess.

    jsh ●

  • 9. Brian Roberts

    Jonah Keri on the worst contracts in MLB - Grantland

    After evaluating the best deals in MLB, it's time to determine which ones you should run away from.

    www.grantland.com

    fearthenoodle ●

  • fearthenoodle said...

    9. Brian Roberts

    Roberts will be sticking in the back of my mind if we make a run at Utley or Cano.

    jsh ●

  • If you add up the WAR projections from ZiPS for the 12 players who we think may get the most playing time - McLouth/Reimold in LF, Betemit/Valencia at DH, Wieters/Teagarden at C, it comes out to about 20.1 WAR. Last year the Orioles had positional players worth a total of 15.3 WAR, though there were many negative-value players who played due to injuries to others, and some will turn out to be that this year as well.

    If you are more sunny on certain players than ZiPS is - which Duquette certainly seems to be about players like Jones, Davis, Markakis and Wieters - then you have plenty of reason to believe the team will have a good offense this year. If you think that some or all of those players are due for regression to a true talent level below their 2012 performance, then you have plenty of reason to believe the 2013 Orioles are in trouble.

    In the end, ZiPS is nothing more than a guess, and as the cliche goes, that's why they play the games. Last year's Orioles did not much care about what they were expected to do as they racked up a 93-69 record and made it into the playoffs.

    Breaking Down ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Baltimore Orioles Lineup - Camden Chat

    The ZiPS projection system has unleashed its predicted statistics for the 2013 Orioles team. Mark takes a look at how last years ZiPS stacked up to reality for the hitters while looking ahead to what it thinks about the upcoming season.

    www.camdenchat.com

    jsh ●

  • JDawgBBall9 said...

    You can pick basically any draft pick after like the top 5 or 10 or something and come up with a list of guys who majority weren't regular starters for more than a couple years. Its just how the draft works. Doesn't mean those picks don't have value to a club like the Orioles, who can't dick around in free agency like the Dodgers or Yankees.

    I was going to say something along these lines in response to flops, though my planned response was kinda snarky.
    Thanks.

    parlay ●

  • jsh said...

    Roberts will be sticking in the back of my mind if we make a run at Utley or Cano.

    That's 2 very different contracts. Unless utley has an incredible yr, he's looking at a 2 or 3 year deal for significantly less per yr than cano. Cano is looking at a record setting deal.

    parlay ●

  • parlay said...

    That's 2 very different contracts. Unless utley has an incredible yr, he's looking at a 2 or 3 year deal for significantly less per yr than cano. Cano is looking at a record setting deal.

    You're still committing 10+M a year for multiple years to a position which doesn't have a good track record when it comes to longevity.

    This post was edited by jsh on 2/11/2013 at 9:33 AM

    jsh ●

  • Rockin' my Chen t-shirt at work in honor of the return of baseball

    kcashmoney ●

  • cjterps98 said...

    totally agree--we had no business even being in the discussion for Hamilton. That said, not signing Bourn seems like a can't miss opportunity to significantly upgrade at a reasonable price. Hopefully Reimold keeps his head straight, stays healthy and has his break-out year in which case I'm wrong. Call me crazy but trying to compete on the cheap in the AL East doesn't seem like a great strategy.

    The thing is, I don't think Bourn impacts Reimold. Ideally, Bourn is an everyday OF, Reimold is an everyday DH, McLouth is your 4th OF and Betemit is your #1 bat off the bench. That's a quality team, with depth if anyone gets hurt (Casilla is a qulaity backup as well). Right now, you are looking at McLouth or Betemit starting (which is not ideal) and then our depth is AAAA, not major league quality

    Flops

  • The past 10 months or so have been bar-none the best time in my life to be a Baltimore sports fan. I don't have sky-high expectations for the Os this year, but I'm hopeful and excited at the beginning of spring training for the first time I can remember while still basking in the glow of seeing the Ravens win the Super Bowl in person, not to mention going to a freaking playoff game at Camden Yards (six months later that still hasn't worn off, even though I could only go to Game 1). BMORE STAND UP!!! rockon

    aschaefe ●

  • jsh said...

    If you add up the WAR projections from ZiPS for the 12 players who we think may get the most playing time - McLouth/Reimold in LF, Betemit/Valencia at DH, Wieters/Teagarden at C, it comes out to about 20.1 WAR.

    If the pitchers match their WAR from last year, I reckon that there is a 68% probability of the O's finishing between 74 and 86 wins. If they perform at a 2 standard deviation to the plus side, there is about a 5% probability that they exceed 92 wins.

    I think PECOTA has them at 74 wins.

    terp7475 ●

  • jsh said...

    At the right price I'd be fine with Bourn because I see that as getting a player at below market value and that's worth losing the draft pick. Signing Lohse would be incredibly dumb when we could've just signed Saunders or Marcum or Jackson or a number of other pitchers who wouldn't have cost a draft pick.

    I agree about Bourn. I am not a huge fan of signing Lohse (Marcum was my guy, and I'd rather trade for Norris if that is a viable option), but I wanted to provide some context of what the 23rd pick looks like. Without knowing what the odds that pick #23 will be valuable, talking in abstract about a "first round pick" is pointless since the #5 pick is worth much more than the #28 pick. Through my non-scientific example, we can see there is somewhere between a 25-40% chance it will have some impact on the major league level. In my OPINION, that shouldn't dissuade us from signing Bourn, who unquestionably would help the team, and it lessens the impact of potentially signing Lohse. If we don't sign Lohse, it shouldn't be because of the pick. It should be because he is a 34 year-old with a mediocre long-term track record who doesn't strike people out at a good rate. But, he is better than Saunders, healthier than Marcum and should cost less than Jackson, so I wouldn't call signing him "incredibly dumb" without seeing the terms he agrees to.

    Again, signing Lohse won't have me pumping my first in the air and changing this offseason to a success. Signing Bourn would

    This post was edited by Flops on 2/11/2013 at 9:55 AM

    Flops

  • terp7475 said...

    If the pitchers match their WAR from last year, I reckon that there is a 68% probability of the O's finishing between 74 and 86 wins. If they perform at a 2 standard deviation to the plus side, there is about a 5% probability that they exceed 92 wins.

    I think PECOTA has them at 74 wins.

    Yeah, 74-88. 711 runs scored, 782 runs allowed.

    jsh ●

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