Online Now 988

General Sports Water Cooler

A place for lively discussion for all other sports unrelated to Maryland athletics

On this Board 342
Record: 2758 (12/1/2012)

Online now 1265
Record: 11761 (2/27/2012)

Boards ▾

Inside Scoop

The Web's No. 1 forum for coverage and discussion of Terps sports

Terps Sports

Visitor discussion of University of Maryland and college sports

General Sports Water Cooler

A place for lively discussion for all other sports unrelated to Maryland athletics

Off-Topic

Test/Feedback Forum

Feedback for IMS and 247Sports

The Ticket Exchange

Reply

Orioles Offseason Thread 3.0

  • charmcity3131 said...

    If you trade Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds, Guthrie, Jim Johnson and Markakis, you would instantly have the top farm system in the game. Spestarters.

    Yeaaaaah ok.

    swathorne

  • I just don't see how this team goes from winning 70 games to winning 90 or more in this division. If someone can tell me another way they get there, I'd love to hear it. I'm dying for this team to win again and pack the yard.

    charmcity3131

  • charmcity3131 said...

    I just don't see how this team goes from winning 70 games to winning 90 or more in this division.

    Pitch better.

    bkmalik

  • If we followed charmcity's plan there's a very good chance we could be staring at the same situation 5 years down the road.

    It's nice that we want more than that package from the Marlins but the reality could be that's the best we could do. Jim Callis threw out maybe Jurrjens and Arodys Vizcaino but he said Atlanta probably wouldn't do that.

    Markakis won't bring back much, we got Reynolds for two bullpen arms and he hasn't significantly improved his value between last year and this year. Guthrie isn't going to bring back much. Really the only guy that would bring back potential stars would be Wieters and you'd be trading 4 years of Wieters for 4-5 guys with only one or two having a star level ceiling.

    We have a pretty solid core locked up for relatively low costs for the next 4 years. I'd like to see what Matusz/Britton/Arrieta do this year before tearing everything back down again.

    jsh

  • And if that's the best we can do, I probably hang onto Jones. A lot could change between now and July.

    As for the "trade everybody" idea, just no. We've been through this. Just make smart trades when they present themselves. Trying to force trades for all of those guys just leads to crappy deals, most likely.

    fearthenoodle

  • I really want Fielder to be using the nats for more money.

    Pic Sigs are for losers.

    jgdomino

  • I wish Fielder would just sign, because I think a lot of other FA/trade dominos start to fall around baseball once he is signed.

    fearthenoodle

  • FYI- autograph vouchers for FanFest go on sale at 10am this Saturday.

    fearthenoodle

  • Pitch better? With who? How? We are going to pitch 20 games better? I could see the "calvary" improving and getting us to 82 wins or something like that, but that's about it.

    I don't think we have done this trade everyone before. What year did we do that and who did we trade? We are trading players entering the prime of their careers now, not has-beens like Miggy. This is nothing like what we did before.

    It's obviously quite possible we are staring at the same situation 6 years from now, but it's even more possible we could be doing the same thing if we don't act now and do some drastic things.

    I'd also argue Hardy and Jim Johnson would both bring back some pretty nice pieces, and we would eat some of Markakis' contract to get more/better prospects for him. I generally agree about Reynolds and Guthrie and the little return they would likely provide.

    charmcity3131

  • fearthenoodle said...

    I wish Fielder would just sign, because I think a lot of other FA/trade dominos start to fall around baseball once he is signed.

    I think Boras is waiting for Darvish to sign. Darvish doesn't sign than the Rangers could enter the bidding.

    jsh

  • any more news on the Cuban OF?

    BCiB

  • charmcity3131 said...

    I don't think we have done this trade everyone before. What year did we do that and who did we trade? We are trading players entering the prime of their careers now, not has-beens like Miggy. This is nothing like what we did before.

    It's obviously quite possible we are staring at the same situation 6 years from now, but it's even more possible we could be doing the same thing if we don't act now and do some drastic things.

    I'd also argue Hardy and Jim Johnson would both bring back some pretty nice pieces, and we would eat some of Markakis' contract to get more/better prospects for him. I generally agree about Reynolds and Guthrie and the little return they would likely provide.

    First, who has successfully done the "trade everybody" firesale? I think it's a fan favorite strategy but I think a lot of the times the return on the players isn't great, especially if you're trying to move everyone by an arbitrary deadline.

    You'll have to define "nice pieces". Andrew Bailey returned Josh Reddick (potential everyday starter but a flawed player) and two minor leaguers who aren't anything special and are years away from contributing. I don't see Johnson returning more than that.

    Even if we're eating some of Markakis' salary we're still talking about a RF whose range has diminished and doesn't have a lot of power. Are teams really banging down the door for that?

    Hardy is arguably our second best trade chip after Wieters and I see us getting a prospect in the 26-50 range and probably another one around in the second half of the top 100. I guess those are nice pieces but the odds of them making it as everyday players are probably 50/50 at best.

    I really don't understand why we have to do something drastic this offseason. Worst case scenario would be everyone has poor years and diminish their trade values but I find that scenario to be very unlikely. I'm sure someone will say not tearing it down immediately will put us a year further away from contention but I just don't think we have anything, besides Wieters, that would bring back a substantial return.

    If the cavalry pitches better and gets us to 82 wins how isn't that exciting? I'm not talking about a "we're at .500 woohoo!" exciting but a "we're ~8 wins from contention and have most of that core locked up for 3 more years" exciting. I'm not trying to say that's going to happen or that we'll even reach 75 wins but I'd still like to see at least one more year with this core to see what they can do.

    jsh

  • BCiB said...

    any more news on the Cuban OF?

    I haven't heard whether or not he's established residency but most reports have been that he'll be able to sign later this month.

    jsh

  • charmcity3131 said...

    I don't think we have done this trade everyone before. What year did we do that and who did we trade?

    The ill-fated Syd Thrift firesale of 2000:

    Mike Bordick to NYM for Melvin Mora, Leslie Brea, Mike Kinkade and Pat Gorman.

    Mike Timlin to STL for Chris Richard and Mark Nussbeck.

    Charles Johnson and Harold Baines to CHW for Brook Fordyce, Juan Figueroa, Jason Lakman and Miguel Felix..

    Will Clark to STL for Jose Leon.

    BJ Surhoff and Gabe Molina to ATL for Luis Rivera, Trinidad Hubbard and Fernando Lunar.

    fearthenoodle

  • jsh said...

    First, who has successfully done the "trade everybody" firesale?

    good read on the topic, and maybe the closest someone has come to it

    http://www.baseballminutia.com/images/a.pdf

    Noah Cross

  • fearthenoodle said...

    The ill-fated Syd Thrift firesale of 2000:

    Mike Bordick to NYM for Melvin Mora, Leslie Brea, Mike Kinkade and Pat Gorman.

    this was a straight-up robbery and doesn't belong here

    screamin_jay

  • I see some of Jsh's points, but 82 wins to me is false hope with this group. I just don't see them being good enough to make that next leap and I don't see us making the necessary moves to augment them with the pieces to get to that level. I could be wrong.

    Please don't use a Syd Thrift fire sale as an example. Also, all of the players you mention have nowhere near the value of Wieters or Jones, and probably not even Hardy or Markakis. I get that Markakis has seen his value diminish, but I would see him as a great buy low if I were a contender. He is very good defensively despite that supposed diminished range and I think he would benefit offensively if he played for a winner. Good clubhouse guy too.

    Edit to say I'm not advocating a fire sale. I'm advocating trading everyone. That doesn't mean all these guy are gone in the next week. It means find the best deal over the next year and move them.

    This post was edited by charmcity3131 on 1/5/2012 at 1:45 PM

    charmcity3131

  • screamin_jay said...

    this was a straight-up robbery and doesn't belong here

    Eh, obviously we got Mora, who became a great Oriole, AND we resigned Bordick in the offseason, but at the time Mora looked like he might just be a UTIL guy and I don't even think he was the one people were most excited about getting.

    fearthenoodle

  • charmcity3131 said...

    I don't think it means we have to trade anyone, but I'm getting more confident in the idea that the O's should deal everyone and start over. Imagine the haul you could get for Wieters.

    I think trades need to "make themselves" in our case.

    Someone needs to come and take our players from us. One of the "supposed" market inefficiencies is giving up prospects for players. I don't want to be in that boat where teams are looking to deal guys and just take the best offer that comes along.

    For example: SEA actually took Bedard from us, by sending us top tier talent in Jones and Tillman a pre arb guy in Sherill, a high upside guy in Kam and a lower level guy in Butler. You make that trade every day of the week. The Miggi deal (the kind I'd like to avoid now though it made sense for him) NEVER had much chance to be beneficial long-term because it had no prospects whatsoever (Patton was legit at one time, but was heading for shoulder surgery; Scott was an average LF). Miggi's value was going down and we got his salary off the books, but that's basically all we got.

    I don't want to be getting rid of guys just because we can. Some other team needs to be aggressive.

    PoorMike

  • fearthenoodle said...

    Eh, obviously we got Mora, who became a great Oriole, AND we resigned Bordick in the offseason, but at the time Mora looked like he might just be a UTIL guy and I don't even think he was the one people were most excited about getting.

    I was always impressed by Mora and Dotel when we played the Mets in interleague. I was hoping we could get both of them but I was thrilled to get MM in the MB deal.

    However, the rest of the deals were crap. Didn't one of them have a guy who was really 3-4 years older then his listed age or something?

    Oh, trading away Will Clark was a plus no matter who we got.

    BTW, wasn't Chris Richard still playing in 2011? LOL

    PoorMike

  • I remember being very excited about rivera. But I now realize that if you trade with atlanta and they send you a pitcher without a big fight about it they are ripping you off.

    Pic Sigs are for losers.

    jgdomino

  • I don't really understand the idea of trading proven successful players that are going into their prime for prospects who have a high fail rate. For instance, we traded Miguel Tejada for Fat Albers, Troy Patton, Michael Costanzo, Luke Scott, and Dennis Sarfate. Most people when this trade happened said the Orioles won the trade big time and Troy Patton was believed to be the star piece in the trade. Looking back on that trade now Luke Scott was a solid player but nothing amazing and everyone else was pretty much absolutely nothing (Patton is now a long man in the bullpen).

    Another good example is the Bedard trade. We got Jones who has been great but we also got Tillman. Tillman was the #22 prospect in baseball at one point. And we are now seeing that he is next to nothing and most people would not even include him at all in our young players with potential. That trade was certainly great and we certainly won it in the end but what I am trying to say is that it is not necessarily smart to get rid of proven veterans that are in their prime for prospects that could amount to nothing or could become something.

    Just my humble opinion but I would rather have guys like Jones and Wieters who are entering their prime and will only get better (with Wieters potentially being and absolute stud) than guys that could be as good as Wieters and Jones but also could be absolutely nothing. The fail rate is obviously much higher in pitchers especially in this organization.

    wbonnington

  • PoorMike said...

    I was always impressed by Mora and Dotel when we played the Mets in interleague. I was hoping we could get both of them but I was thrilled to get MM in the MB deal.

    However, the rest of the deals were crap. Didn't one of them have a guy who was really 3-4 years older then his listed age or something?

    Oh, trading away Will Clark was a plus no matter who we got.

    BTW, wasn't Chris Richard still playing in 2011? LOL

    Clark actually was having a very good year when we dealt him, and had a 1.000+ OPS with STL the rest of the way.

    And yes- one of the key prospects in one of the deals was 3 or 4 years older than we thought.

    fearthenoodle

  • Agree with that bonnington. Like I said, we have a decent core of guys that are 1) relatively cheap and 2) entering their primes or are a few years away from their prime. Tearing it all down now means we won't compete for another 3-4 years and the odds are we'll likely end up with a similar group of guys if not worse.

    This post was edited by jsh on 1/5/2012 at 2:13 PM

    jsh

  • Leslie Brea was the guy who was 3-4 years older.

    jsh