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Assuming everyone takes SF (which is probably a bad assumption) and the money line is +160, the amount you should put on the money line to guarantee an equal win either way is:
35000 / 34 / (1 + 1.6) = $395.93. If SF wins, you win $1,029.41 but lose $395.93, for a total of $633.48. If Baltimore wins, you win $633.49 on the money line.
That ignores the survivor entry fee, but in a previous post you said there were 3900 people, so that was presumably $10 or less.
So basically, if you wanna guarantee yourself over $600 (hopefully more if SF wins and not everyone took them), pick SF and put $400 or so on the Baltimore money line.
eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?
What do you think the split will be between SF and Baltimore. 34 entries. Someone indicated they think it may be even. I was thinking more like 24/10
I am actually thinking of flipping. Taking Ravens and betting SF moneyline. If only 10 people take Baltimore that is 3500 payout.
Is this a national pool, or largely Maryland people, or what? The latter could cause it to end up with more people than you think on Baltimore.
Flipping it around will guarantee you less money... But at the end of the day, you should really pick who you think is going to win in survivor, and hedge against the other team, since your winnings in survivor are likely to be more than anything you're willing to put on the money line.
3900 entries so I have to imagine it is spread out. I believe it originating here but don't know. Being a Raven fan it is hard to keep objective. I think its going to be close.
Hey terpdog, who'd you pick in survivor? Did you hedge? How much did you end up winning?
I ended up picking San Francisco and betting Baltimore. I can't remember exactly because my memory sucks but I believe it was 17 for sf 16 for Baltimore. I liked the idea of possibly winning both bets getting 3 1/2 and would have done so if niners scored that last drive. Bet 500 so would have won near 2500 if niners scored. I am a ravens fan so winning a championship, 500 bucks and season of fun it was all worth it. Was wondering what I would do if that exact scenario played out and who I would root for and I was still rooting for ravens so apparently 2k wasn't the number that I would lose my loyalty. Probably should have been hoping for the extra 2k.
If the Redskins were in the Super Bowl, I'd definitely be willing to light $2,000 on fire (or fine, give it to charity) to guarantee a Redskins victory. You did the right thing.
For 2K, you did the right thing. If it was 20K, you weren't getting a ring with the team anyways
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