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That picture of Roberts is fantastic. Gravely ill!
I guess the doubting will be a season long theme.
No, the Ot seem real worried about it.
That is fine. I think the players feed off of it to a certain extent. They are happy to play with a chip on their shoulder.
Neyer's not necessarily wrong, of course.
This post was edited by fearthenoodle 12 months ago
I guess charmcity can confirm this, but I pulled this from OH:
GFS model has light rain out of area by 1-3pm.
NAM simulated radar has rain out of region by 1pm, but never really even has any precip echos over central MD.
Not necessarily wrong, but those articles always seem to never mention that Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis, all 27 years old, could actually improve. And if it was "average" team last year, it was an average team with Steve Tolleson, Xavier Avery, Robert Andino, Lew Ford, and Endy Chavez playing somewhat significant roles.
This lines up with what Marty Bass says. I'd imagine Orioles Hangout, charmcity, and Marty Bass are all around the same success rate on predictions.
My beef with his line of thinking, and with the tenor of the national discussion of the O's over the offseason, is encapsulated by Machado. He was considered a near lock, can't miss prospect, and now that he's in the majors writers say stuff like "he hasn't proved he can hit MLB pitching."
WTF is that nonsense? And why do so many of the new thinking type writers diminish prospects when they are no longer "prospects" and are just "young MLB players" (Klaw does this a lot, just not in Machado's case because he loves Machado)
That's basically what pisses me off about a lot of these reviews. No one is really doing the leg work outside of "they can't possibly win that many extra inning/one run games again!" and "run differential!". You can tell me you think the O's are going to suck, just don't be lazy about it and hide behind those two arguments.
Its just become the new vogue thing to completely discount any value of actually winning games. It probably hurts you when it comes to prognostications. You look at something like Keri's piece, and the team who won more games (Orioles) are discredited by saying that it can't possibly happen again and they will regress and do worse. While a team that did do worse (Rays), and lost more valuable players btw, are given credit because their run differential last year means they *should* win more games this year, never mind they didn't last year, with a more talented team. And a team that was horrible last year (Red Sox) is given credit by claims of "likely positive regression for players X, Y and Z" Not winning games is the new black, because that means you are more likely to do better next year. I wish they had said the same things the last decade + when the Orioles owned not winning games. Now that the Orioles are winning again, winning isn't cool any more
You realize those people look at what teams that are winning games generally do, and use those observations to see who is more likely to win games. That is how the world works. But people just find baseball too sacred to admit that. You are basically saying "Stock A went up yesterday and Stock B went down. Therefore, Stock A is the best bet. Forget those fancy shmancy guys on Wall Street and their models who say otherwise."
You act like people don't support "winning" anymore, yet everyone still has Texas, Detroit, Washington, Atlanta, and Cincinnati winning again this year. It is just us.
Run differential is a useful predictor, but its reliability diminishes the more you have personnel turnover (a) within the prior sample you're referencing; and (b) between the prior sample and the current/future sample. I don't know if analysts ignore this with respect to the Orioles because they don't realize how much roster turnover the Orioles actually had last year, or because they're just too lazy to do the analysis right. As others have said, if you think the Orioles are going to be worse this year because you don't think Gonzalez, Tillman, Hammel, Chen, McLouth, Davis, etc. can match last year's performances and you don't think Reimold/Roberts will do well and think Machado will struggle this year, fine. But the laziness of just looking at full-year rankings and metrics from last year like run differential or one-run/extra-inning games and saying they are due to regress just drives me crazy.
The Mets wanted 20 year old Manny Machado, who by all accounts is projected to be a superstar, and 22 year old Kevin Gausman, who will probably join the Orioles someone in the next calender year as has been lights out since joining the organtization.
They wanted those two for 38 year old R.A. Dickey. Come on. It's laughable.
Wait, wasn't the most recent ban for posting gore or something gross like that?
I can't keep track of your bans. I feel like a social worker sticking up for an at-risk youth.
I need a majopa/redraven rap sheet with dates and listed offenses.
"And I try to har-mo-nize with songs the lonesome sparrow sings...
There are no kings inside the Gates of Eden."
And Fuck Hellickson.
I'm assuming one of you guys will know this, but you have to go to the Box Office to purchase student tix for Friday nights, correct? Also, I'm assuming the person who has the ID has to be the purchaser, correct?
Yep, you're right. You have to buy at the box office but you CAN buy in advance. The buyer needs an ID and it's good for up to six discounted tickets
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