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The draft pick is the only thing that bothers me. It should be a steal by AAV.
I think the material difference between the statsheads and the rest of us is that while we believe in the statistics and agree that they are the best predictor for future performance, we also acknowledge that the best predictor and most accurate statistical measurement still is hugely inaccurate due to the effects of randomness/error/human element/life/outside factors/force majeure/whatever. we saw this Orioles team win 90+ games when every statistic indicated that was extremely unlikely. we have seen countless top prospects flame out and countless low-round picks turn into all-stars. we have seen the Cards have amazing comebacks two post-seasons in a row when every statistic said each was a once in X games type of event. I'm still waiting for the multiple MVP awards percota said switch-hitting-jesus would have by now. so while I think the statistics are the best thing we have, I also know that 100-year floods do not occur every spring. trust but verify. its still a new science and lots of kinks to be worked out ....
Bill James projections for some O's targets (OBP/SLG/OPS):
Kelly Johnson .328/.407/.735
Guthrie 4.20 (not really a target to return, but was curious)
I agree with the overall point. This probably isn't fair, though, since it was scouts more than any projection system that over-hyped Wieters, I thought.
This post was edited by fearthenoodle 17 months ago
Interesting, is he assuming they stay with their current teams in his algorithm? I assume so with McCarthy's numbers.
Getting the Marlins scout is huge. They still scout pretty well.
I *think* this is how he does those projections. I believe he may update them when FAs sign with new teams.
I think most stat heads will tell you projections on prospects are far from perfect.
Yeah, blaming stat nerds for prospect flame outs is a little ridiculous. PECOTA did have him as a consistent 1.000 guy, but when you are trying to project non-MLB numbers to MLB numbers, it is really difficult.
A few other Bill James numbers for some other random guys I don't think were included previously:
Roberts .345/.397/.742 (63 games)
Pearce .347/.456/.803 (73 games)
S. Johnson 4.40 (RP)
How could I forget Alexi Casilla- .311/.331/.642
well, mlb projections for prospects should come with an asterisk saying *for entertainment purposes only. but my larger point is that 'advanced statistics' in baseball, while awesome, are just so inaccurate as predictors to not really be worthy of being included in comments like "you don't like math". yes, they are good for looking backwards. but in looking forward, its the little non-calculable items that are the difference makers. a LF knocks a cougar up and goes psycho for 18 months with zero production. an experienced SP learns a new fastball that sinks better in normal altitude. a 2B goes off steroids. a 1B signs a big deal and suddenly eats his way out of elite talent level. whatever. not saying scouting is any better, but it is annoying to read these posts by Titan acting as if anyone who questions these statistics do not believe in math. it is not math. this is not actuarial science. it is not THAT accurate to be called math. look at these Bill James projections and how they compare to the actual #s at season end, and compare that to real uses of statistical modeling in other endeavors where they are critical, and tell me they are analogous? and you have a ph.d?
reminds me of the hubris of the wall street modelers who insisted on the safeness of MBS, and that was real math ... so
I still want marcum and I think he's largely being ignored.
im sorry i was confusing...your "Superbowl" was the Redskins losing since you know that the Ravens cant win it all.
Assuming our medical staff thinks his arm is sound, Marcum sounds like a perfect guy to put through Peterson's pitching lab.
I'd like Marcum in addition to a guy like Sanchez/Jackson/Saunders.
Sign Dick Swisher, Sanchez, Marcum
Trade excess pitching for Kinsler
Is this one case where baseball is the most complex thing in the world? Or, is math just stupid? It has to be one of those two.....right?
Or maybe it's a gray area?
That wasn't the topic being discussed when you got on Titan for his delivery though. In his defense the post you quoted acknowledges that comparing nonMLB numbers to MLB numbers is inherently going to have more margin for error and more misses. That works for any sort of comparison of numbers when the conditions for data sampling are different.
That doesn't mean that stats for comparing MLB Player A vs MLB Player B are any less accurate. I may be in over my head because admittedly I'm a relative novice to these new baseball metrics but I think the overridding point of what Titan is trying to convey is that people like parlay who try to just stubbornly brush a lot of these new metrics aside aren't really saying much.
Scouts who had been watching infielder Jonathan Schoop at Double-A Bowie and the Arizona Fall League seem convinced that he will become an everyday player ...
Encouraging words on Schoop.
Olney seems to think it will either be Jim Tracy or Jim Riggleman to manage in Toronto.
Just like everything else in the world, some models have significance and some don't. We don't have the same data available in HS/College. Garbage in, garbage out.
Free-agent RHP #MattLindstrom tells@MLBnetworkradio that he would love to return to #Orioles. He "enjoyed the heck out of it,'' in Balt.#MLB
I'd love to have lindstrom back
God... how awesome was our team last year? Funnest team I've ever religiously watched and they all loved it there. Been a while since that was said about playing in Baltimore.
Players I'm driving the bandwagon for: Kevin Gregg
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