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No one is leaving the SEC.
I see what you did there. UV.
It is the business walk of the biggest, baddest bear in the national park happening upon an abandoned picnic.
I don't agree with that at all. Conferences are only going to expand when it makes economic sense, they're not going to expand just to expand. There are very few teams left that would make sense for conferences to expand (UNC, Notre Dame, Texas....that's about it) and conferences aren't going to take on turds (Rutgers, UConn, WVU) just to reach 16 because that will lower the profits of the other schools in the conference.
Except, you know, Tennessee to come to the ACC.
"Maryland football: Where everybody gets hurt and the starting left tackle has an existential crisis."
Which is where the ACC enters the picture. As they did last year, industry sources believe that if the Irish were to forgo their football independence and join a league for all sports, the ACC is the likeliest destination.
Two reasons: First, while Notre Dame's most natural geographic conference is the Big Ten, the school has long leaned toward the east. This dates to the 1920s, when "subway alumni" flocked to Irish football games at Yankee Stadium.
Second, Notre Dame and the ACC fit academically, a notion not to be dismissed when university presidents are making the decisions. Like Duke, Miami, Boston College and Wake Forest, Notre Dame is a private school with fewer than 10,000 undergraduates.
As with all realignment, money and television are paramount here. The Irish are renegotiating their football deal with NBC, while the ACC is revisiting its contract with ESPN in the wake of adding Syracuse and Pitt.
If Louisville and/or Cincinnati leave Big East for Big 12, Irish could be on market
Here’s one thing that’s clear to me, though: ESPN has zero incentive to see the ACC get raided. None. Nada. Unlike its contracts with every other power conference, ESPN has complete top-to-bottom control of all ACC TV rights. This means that ESPN has more of a vested interest in the survival of the ACC specifically over every other conference – it’s the one league that the people in Bristol aren’t sharing with Fox, CBS or the Big Ten Network. In fact, think of it in these terms:
The ACC is the single largest content provider to all of the ESPN networks, whether college or pro.
Let that sink in for a moment. The ACC provides more live content to ESPN than the NFL, Major League Baseball, NBA, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12. So, do you really think ESPN wants the ACC to lose anyone, much less actually enable another league (the Big 12) to poach Jim Swofford’s gang? Is ESPN going to want to trade an entire slate of Florida State games that’s guaranteed annually in order to receive only a handful of tier 1 Seminole games that’s variable from year-to-year? Well, for all of the talk about how sexy of a matchup Florida State vs. Texas would be, check out the number of times that FSU vs. Miami appears on the list of highest rated games in the history of ESPN. Since many sports fans tend to forget the existence of anything that happened beyond one year ago, they have forgotten how strong the ACC has been as a TV property over the long haul.
No one knows how much ESPN can single-handedly shape conference realignment more than the Big 12. There’s one reason why Texas and Oklahoma aren’t in the Pac-16 today: the Longhorn Network. ESPN was willing to pay Texas $15 million per year alone for bottom-of-the-barrel TV rights just so that its limited tier 1 Big 12 package would be kept alive. So, my educated guess is that ESPN is going to be more than willing to throw at least an extra $30 million per year toward its single largest content provider of the ACC to make it at least revenue neutral on the TV front (where it’s close enough to the value of the Big 12’s TV deal that any difference would be offset by higher travel expenses) or even more to remove any doubt that the ACC is on equal standing with the other power conferences.
As I’ve stated in prior blog posts, I’m not saying this out of any love for the ACC. Personally, there’s nothing that I’d love more than to witness those douchebags from Duke get relegated to the Southern Conference. However, I try my best to separate what I want to see happen from what I believe will actually happen. In this case, I believe that ESPN is going to end up paying the ACC enough to remove TV revenue as a reason for any school to leave that league for the Big 12.
The conference could begin television negotiations as early as September. College football officials inside the league and out, and others well versed in TV negotiations all said the league would be best served if it stayed together, even in its unwieldy current configuration.
Marinatto was forced to resign by university presidents after defections, failed TV negotiations and geographically puzzling expansion.
I see jsh follows FranktheTank on Twitter.
Very logical rundown of why ESPN doesn't want to see FSU and Clemson walk out of the ACC, where ESPN has rights to all games. That's especially true when you compare to the Big 12, where ESPN would be giving up Tier 2 to Fox and Tier 3 to whoever wants it.
When you consider the $40 million per year that ESPN & Fox would need to combine to pay for Clemson & FSU to keep the Big 12 at $20 million per team per year (to say nothing of a raise), it makes you realize ESPN will pay more to retain all tiers of rights for these teams.
So ESPN/ABC will have exclusinve rights to Notre Dame once they join the ACC...make it rain ESPN
And there's this reported interview with Clemson President Barker as well. I'd like audio confirmation on this one:
"He was asked about expansion rumors pertaining to the big 12. He said they have not been contacted and if they were, they would politely decline. That they have "absolutely no interest in leaving the ACC and if they did, they certainly would not consider the big 12"."
This post was edited by ChrispyWF 23 months ago
If ND joins, picking between Rutgers and UConn is the "giant douche vs. turd sandwich" option but I guess give me Rutgers if it comes to that. I don't think they do much to "deliver" NYC and I'm not confident that they'll ever come close to fulfilling their supposed football potential but I think they have a little bit better chance to establish a decent football program than UConn. UConn is obviously the better hoops choice but it's a football decision and the ACC has enough good basketball programs already, plus their hoops program is as dirty as they come and deserves to die on the vine in isolation from the major conferences.
I agree with you until those four conferences cut the middle men out (NCAA & BCS) and take the money those entities now make. That's just where I see it heading.
Who do you think runs the NCAA and the BCS? If the four conferences separate there will still be a governing body that is paid by the four conferences. And even if they did want to separate (I don't think they will for political reasons) why would it need to be 4 16 team conferences? It just doesn't make financial sense.
if we pull Notre Dame, couldn't we use that as a selling point for a school better than Rutgers or UConn to join?
the playoff we're heading toward likely makes expansion largely irrelevant. Unless they completely botch the format, which even then would likely only last a few years/one round of expansion
Who exactly are you hoping to pull? Nobody's leaving from the SEC or Big Ten, and nobody else is an improvement over UConn or Rutgers.
Re Rutgers - there are a ton of (wealthy) people in NY and NJ. The B10 would have zero interest in UConn but, at least according to some, has some interest in expanding east. Taking UConn and allowing B10 to obtain rutgers and maintain a presence in NY would be very poor decision imo
I thought, albeit a very, very small chance of it ever happening, we'd have a shot at PSU if we were able to get ND. After Sandusky though they've lost all of their appeal to me.
I'm pretty sure if the the ACC goes to 16 Rutgers will be the team. BC is going to fight to keep UConn out and it just makes more sense to try and get as much of the NY/NJ market as possible than grabbing Hartford.
No one is leaving those conferences today to be #15. Five years from now, IF the ACC is soliciting teams to be #16 alongside Notre Dame, you had better believe there will be certain teams listening.
Chip Brown throwing shit against the wall:
Brown, who at times last year seemed to be doing his best to keep the Big 12 together, says the Seminoles are leaving money on the table in the ACC deal, and estimates the school could get 1/3 of what Texas got for the Longhorn Network. Brown goes on to say that FSU’s academic department is so cash-strapped ($2.4 million shortfall for next season) and the facilities are so old and crummy, that the school essentially needs its own network.
You have to read way down for what feels like the kicker coming from Somebody Important at Texas: “If the financial models for a network come back favorable for FSU, the Seminoles could compare a $17 million payout in the ACC to a $19 million annual payout in the Big 12 and probably stack at least $5 million per year on top from its own network.”
Given how well the Longhorn Network is doing I'm sure the phone is ringing off the hook to set up the Seminole Network!
Sounds like the Big 12 wants to do some poaching.
It's really an amazing selling point. Come to the Big XII where you're in a $10M hole (best case scenario) behind the team that rules the roost. The article then goes on to talk about dissatisfaction with the UNC/Duke dynamic of the ACC, as if an FSU team which resuscitates its football program is somehow better off in an even more disadvantageous situation playing in the same conference as Texas and the king's court of midwestern subjects which need the Longhorns to survive as top tier athletics programs.
Nothing could be better than FSU fans complaining about the ACC catering to Duke/UNC. If only the ACC would cater to FSU by, I don't know, playing the ACCCG in Florida. Wait a minute...
Or keeping Miami and FSU in separate divisions and ensuring they still play every regular season. FSU is also "upset" that they added two basketball schools in Pitt and Syracuse despite the fact that
a) no "football schools" were taking those two spots unless they wanted West Virginia
b) the last round of expansion was explicitly for football and
c) if the league didn't expand, they wouldn't have an extra 5M/year right now
I thought this was America. You want more money, FSU? Win more games.
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