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2012 French Open thread

  • TheCardinalTerp said...

    That strategy would've had a 90% success rate last year and probably 5% this year. Partly because of the balls and mainly because Rafa is playing like a beast.

    So Fed is better off getting the points. If Fed wins tomorrow and has a better result than Djokovic at Wimbledon, he will be #1. He has all the records in the book, but he is 1 week short of Pete Sampras for total number of weeks at #1. Would be nice to wipe the floor clean with all the major records.

    If Nadal wins and gets to a final at Wimbledon with Federer is he #1?

    bossterp

  • Damn there are a lot of empty seats at the start of Ferrer/Nadal.

    OrangeTerrapin

  • OrangeTerrapin said...

    Damn there are a lot of empty seats at the start of Ferrer/Nadal.

    I wasn't watching, but I know it's been raining.

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • TheCardinalTerp said...

    That strategy would've had a 90% success rate last year and probably 5% this year. Partly because of the balls and mainly because Rafa is playing like a beast.

    So Fed is better off getting the points. If Fed wins tomorrow and has a better result than Djokovic at Wimbledon, he will be #1. He has all the records in the book, but he is 1 week short of Pete Sampras for total number of weeks at #1. Would be nice to wipe the floor clean with all the major records.

    I'm a tennis rankings nub, but I'm pretty sure in your scenario Fed would have to at least get to the final. He's 2,010 points behind Djok right now, and your scenario in the French is identical to what happened last year, so no points changes. Then if Fed gets to the semis at Wimbledon, he gains 360, and if Djok only makes the quarters he loses 1,640 points. That's a net change of 2,000 points, not quite enough.

    Of course, if Nadal wins Wimbledon, he gains 800 points, and Fed only gains 840 for getting to the final. So Nadal would be #1 in that case.

    Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by azitnay on 6/8/2012 at 9:12 AM

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • That was ugly. Grand slam semi final and Nadal loses 5 games total. 106 minute match. Is this the best he has looked? I'm thinking he wins 2 majors this year and 3 next.

    bossterp

  • bossterp said...

    If Nadal wins and gets to a final at Wimbledon with Federer is he #1?

    Testing out my nub tennis ranking math a little more, Nadal getting to the final gains him 0 points, since that's where he got last year. Federer winning gains him 1,640. Fed's 2,010 points behind Nadal right now, so Nadal would remain ahead of Fed by 370 points in this scenario.

    Djok only getting to the semis would lose him 1,280 points, but he's 1,740 points ahead of Nadal right now. So he'd still be #1 by 460 points. Even if he only makes the quarters, he only loses 1,640 points, still not quite enough to bump Nadal into #1.

    So I'm pretty sure that to get to #1, Nadal needs to either win and have Djok lose before the finals, or get to the final and have Djok make an early exit.

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • bossterp said...

    That was ugly. Grand slam semi final and Nadal loses 5 games total. 106 minute match. Is this the best he has looked? I'm thinking he wins 2 majors this year and 3 next.

    He looks awesome on clay, but I don't think Djokovic is done giving him hell on the other surfaces. I really hope he can pull off another win this year, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • I meant for Fed. I was saying if Nadal loses to Federer at Wimbledon wouldn't Fed still be behind?

    bossterp

  • bossterp said...

    I meant for Fed. I was saying if Nadal loses to Federer at Wimbledon wouldn't Fed still be behind?

    Don't think so... If Fed wins Wimbledon, he gains 1,640 points. If Nadal loses in the final, his points stay the same. If Djok loses in the semis, he loses 1,280 points. So Fed would be 910 points ahead of Djok, and 1,370 points ahead of Nadal.

    This post was edited by azitnay on 6/8/2012 at 9:47 AM

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • Feds gets a break in set 1

    BrotherAbstract

  • Goddamnit, that fucking criminal Kwame Brown is interrupting coverage on NBC4.

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • feds got that first break then djok broke twice and takes first set

    BrotherAbstract

  • Fed loses the 2nd set after being up 3-0 with a double break...looks like this is over.

    BoostedTerp

  • bossterp said...

    If Nadal wins and gets to a final at Wimbledon with Federer is he #1?

    No.... unless Nadal wins wimbledon and Djokovic loses before the QF

    "Anyone who talks about Jordan Williams leaving knows nothing about basketball. Absolutely nothing" - Hogie 02/27/2011

    TheCardinalTerp

  • I don't know that I've ever seen Federer play a worse big match. He's been blown up before (usually by Rafa at the French) but its always been because his opponent has played really well. Novak isn't playing that great today - Roger just keeps committing error after error.

    gocaps1

  • gocaps1 said...

    I don't know that I've ever seen Federer play a worse big match. He's been blown up before (usually by Rafa at the French) but its always been because his opponent has played really well. Novak isn't playing that great today - Roger just keeps committing error after error.

    Not that it really means much given timing, surfaces, etc., but it's strange to think that Federer could easily end up with losing records against Nadal (10-18), Djokovic (14-12 assuming Djokovic wins today, but Novak would have won 6 out of the last 7), and Murray (7-8).

    NoFearCavailer

  • If Fed had done this last year, Rafa would've been at 9 slams. This year, Rafa is going to cream Nole.

    "Anyone who talks about Jordan Williams leaving knows nothing about basketball. Absolutely nothing" - Hogie 02/27/2011

    TheCardinalTerp

  • Here is the full detail on the ranking.

    After Sunday (assuming the inevitable), subtracting Wimbledon points
    Novak: 10280
    Fed: 8950
    Rafa: 8860

    So if Fed or Rafa win and Novak loses before the SF, whoever wins is #1. Highly improbable.

    But, Fed is defending nothing before the US Open and just a SF at the US Open, so he has a lot of ground to gain.. and then there are 750 points available at the Olympics.

    "Anyone who talks about Jordan Williams leaving knows nothing about basketball. Absolutely nothing" - Hogie 02/27/2011

    TheCardinalTerp

  • didn't watch either but heard djokovic and especially rafa rolled. Winning 2 2 and 1 is huge, but remember Nadal owns Ferrer.

    hard to pick against rafa now

    GiantsNTerps

  • NoFearCavailer said...

    Not that it really means much given timing, surfaces, etc., but it's strange to think that Federer could easily end up with losing records against Nadal (10-18), Djokovic (14-12 assuming Djokovic wins today, but Novak would have won 6 out of the last 7), and Murray (7-8).

    The problem is Fed has become such a mental midget when playing the other big 2, yet is still good enough to regularly make the semis and finals of big tournaments only to get owned by them. If he would just lose in the early rounds, his H-2-H against Rafa and Djokovic would be a lot more respectable.

    Turtle Roar

  • Turtle Roar said...

    The problem is Fed has become such a mental midget when playing the other big 2, yet is still good enough to regularly make the semis and finals of big tournaments only to get owned by them. If he would just lose in the early rounds, his H-2-H against Rafa and Djokovic would be a lot more respectable.

    the premise is correct but mental midget is a bit much isn't it? He beat Djoker last year in the french and nearly took him down at the US open, but Djokovic played ridiculously well to comeback. With Nadal, he lacks more confidence

    This post was edited by GiantsNTerps on 6/8/2012 at 10:45 PM

    GiantsNTerps

  • Djok down a break after game 1... Microcosm of things to come?

    eamhokie94: Is your name Nazi in pig Latin?

    azitnay

  • azitnay said...

    Djok down a break after game 1... Microcosm of things to come?

    This one is over.

    bkmalik

  • azitnay said...

    Djok down a break after game 1... Microcosm of things to come?

    Would think so.

    Call me a relic, call me what you will, Say I'm old-fashioned, say I'm over the hill....

    74umgrad

  • not so quick, Signs of life from Djokovic..

    Nancy Pelosi - The Gift that Keeps on Giving..

    TerpFaith