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White Flint Mall Going Away?

  • Sdog said...

    What will be interesting is the migration of baby boomers back in the city. I have seen some private data already showing the shift from the suburban single family home with a yard to single floor urban condo living.

    very interesting - i wonder how they collect such data - it sounds really appealing to live downtown when one is commuting 3 hours a day (round trip) but just try to move into these tiny places where practically all personal property must be sold before the move

    winterps

  • DTMoney121 said...

    Are boomers really going to buy a $400,000 condo on U Street or in Chinatown? I'd think they'd rent in Friendship Heights or Glover/Cleveland Park before doing that.

    Do you have a link to that data? I'd be interested in reading more about that.

    the one condo guy i know only sells a couple dozen units a year, almost entirely to under 30, not boomers.

    winterps

  • DTMoney121 said...

    Are boomers really going to buy a $400,000 condo on U Street or in Chinatown? I'd think they'd rent in Friendship Heights or Glover/Cleveland Park before doing that.

    Do you have a link to that data? I'd be interested in reading more about that.

    Its proprietary data from some developers I know and others who are pitching a business I am involved in to lease space. There is a distinct difference in the vibrance of the market inside the beltway vs. outside the beltway right now.

    Baby Boomers won't necessarily buy a $400k condo in CH or U Street, but you have to look at the big picture and migration patterns. Look at the P. Street Whole Foods or even CH. Those were fringe neighborhoods and now are booming young professional areas. Boomers will move into Dupont and other neighborhoods and the demographics of neighborhoods will continue to shift just as they have the last 15 years with the blighted areas being pushed east towards PG county. Petworth, NoMa, Shaw - these are ll the next wave of gentrification (already underway).

    Sdog

  • winterps said...

    very interesting - i wonder how they collect such data - it sounds really appealing to live downtown when one is commuting 3 hours a day (round trip) but just try to move into these tiny places where practically all personal property must be sold before the move

    A lot is based on demographics of recent sales/purchases in the metro area and surveys performed by the developers.

    This post was edited by Sdog on 2/20/2012 at 9:54 AM

    Sdog

  • Sdog said...

    Its proprietary data from some developers I know and others who are pitching a business I am involved in to lease space. There is a distinct difference in the vibrance of the market inside the beltway vs. outside the beltway right now.

    Baby Boomers won't necessarily buy a $400k condo in CH or U Street, but you have to look at the big picture and migration patterns. Look at the P. Street Whole Foods or even CH. Those were fringe neighborhoods and now are booming young professional areas. Boomers will move into Dupont and other neighborhoods and the demographics of neighborhoods will continue to shift just as they have the last 15 years with the blighted areas being pushed east towards PG county. Petworth, NoMa, Shaw - these are ll the next wave of gentrification (already underway).

    meanwhile PG county becomes less and less of a liveable community with each passing condo building in previously ghetto areas inside the beltway.

    ravensnterps ●

  • ravensnterps said...

    meanwhile PG county becomes less and less of a liveable community with each passing condo building in previously ghetto areas inside the beltway.

    I think PG has been a clear loser in the gentrification of the city. Mismanagement at the county level hasn't helped either. The Purple line can help and the Konterra project will be interesting to watch, but they have a lot of work to do to improve their planning.

    Sdog

  • You may think traffic wont be affected, however, when Walmart takes over where CiCi's Pizza and Bagel City is located, it will SUCK.

    MoCoTerp

  • marylandmike said...

    When I lived in that area, I always thought that was a terrible mall. Nothing interesting in the place. Of course, my wife loved it and said I didn't like it because I have terrible taste when it comes to shopping.

    Thats the beauty of the place..did most all of my Xmas shopping there since it was so uncrowded vs other malls. Could always get a parking space behind the Bloomies mens dept.

    ConGOTERPS

  • Sdog said...

    I think PG has been a clear loser in the gentrification of the city. Mismanagement at the county level hasn't helped either. The Purple line can help and the Konterra project will be interesting to watch, but they have a lot of work to do to improve their planning.

    This is so true. Park and Planning in MoCo is frustrating, but generally functional and organized. Park and Planning in PG County is a total cluster.

    DTMoney121

  • When are they going to level that shit hole that is lake forest mall?

    terpdog

  • DTMoney121 said...

    While I agree in theory with a lot of your post and I'm generally in favor of high-density mixed-use developments (I love living in a walkable area of Arlington), in my experience, there's a long way to go between Master Planning/Sketch Planning/Initial Design and actual construction. It sounds as though Park and Planning is in general favor of this, but I wouldn't put it past any developer to pull out of the project if it looked like public opinion was shading the other way or if the money to be made wasn't high enough. I'd be surprised if all this development occurs as they've planned it to occur, especially 5-10 years down the road.

    That being said, I agree that traffic will probably improve as a result of this development, and I'm sure they'll have to do umpteen Traffic Impact Studies to check on this. It certainly couldn't get much worse.

    I think Winterps has a good point about the oversaturation of the condo market. There are available condos in the Half Street area downtown, or on U Street, or near Chinatown. I'd prefer to live in any of those areas over White Flint, and the last think Park and Planning or a developer would want is to have half-full buildings because people don't want to buy $400,000 condos. I'd expect a fair amount of apartment buildings, as opposed to condos.

    Those timeframes are from the developers themselves shrug I'll agree that it's entirely possible none of it happens, but I know for a fact that the first two phases of the Mid-Pike plaza are a go, the second phase of the JBG project is a go, and the next building on LCOR's site is going to happen. Everything beyond that is still planning and could very well take much longer to happen. There isn't going to be, at least not for the next few years, any problem with getting the residential/retails portions started. The commercial aspect is what's going to take time, but commercial space is a lesser portion to the redevelopment than the residential/retail. I do think, though, that once the residential/retail base gets built up - in say 3-5 years - that the commercial will soon follow, and pretty quickly at that.

    Also, regarding the apartment/condo thing, the JBG building has far outpaced leasing expectations, which is why they're starting immediately on the second phase. The people living in U street/ Columbia Heights/etc. are a completely different market than those that would live in White Flint so it's fairly useless to compare the two and say that the markets overlap/are the same.

    rvilleterp

  • When are they going to level that shit hole that is lake forest mall?

    terpdog

  • rvilleterp said...

    Those timeframes are from the developers themselves shrug I'll agree that it's entirely possible none of it happens, but I know for a fact that the first two phases of the Mid-Pike plaza are a go, the second phase of the JBG project is a go, and the next building on LCOR's site is going to happen. Everything beyond that is still planning and could very well take much longer to happen. There isn't going to be, at least not for the next few years, any problem with getting the residential/retails portions started. The commercial aspect is what's going to take time, but commercial space is a lesser portion to the redevelopment than the residential/retail. I do think, though, that once the residential/retail base gets built up - in say 3-5 years - that the commercial will soon follow, and pretty quickly at that.

    Also, regarding the apartment/condo thing, the JBG building has far outpaced leasing expectations, which is why they're starting immediately on the second phase. The people living in U street/ Columbia Heights/etc. are a completely different market than those that would live in White Flint so it's fairly useless to compare the two and say that the markets overlap/are the same.

    It sounds as though you have the inside information on this development, so I'll trust that these items are going to happen. It sounds like a cool project, so I'm excited to see it push forward. I still think developer timeframes are pretty useless more than 3-5 years in the future, but I'm excited to see this area get an upgrade, because it really needs it.

    That's interesting that leasing has outpaced expectations. Do you know the demographics they are targeting? Is it DINKs, boomers, families?

    DTMoney121

  • Sdog said...

    I think PG has been a clear loser in the gentrification of the city. Mismanagement at the county level hasn't helped either. The Purple line can help and the Konterra project will be interesting to watch, but they have a lot of work to do to improve their planning.

    I mean the thing is you're not just going to terminate an entire class of people. So as long as there is a lower class they're going to live somewhere. If they're forced out of the city they'll live in the county, and vice versa.

    ravensnterps ●

  • DTMoney121 said...

    It sounds as though you have the inside information on this development, so I'll trust that these items are going to happen. It sounds like a cool project, so I'm excited to see it push forward. I still think developer timeframes are pretty useless more than 3-5 years in the future, but I'm excited to see this area get an upgrade, because it really needs it.

    That's interesting that leasing has outpaced expectations. Do you know the demographics they are targeting? Is it DINKs, boomers, families?

    Boomers, empty nesters, retirees, etc. is where they've seen the best activity and it was actually somewhat unexpected by the developer.

    As for Lake Forest Mall, terpdog, there are some provisions in the Gaithersburg master plan to redevelop the mall, but I honestly doubt that much, if any outside of Old Town, development takes place in Gaithersburg. Gaithersburg has some pretty onerous development requirements and actually building in Gaithersburg is a miserable experience so a lot of developers try to avoid the city completely. There is likely going to be an apartment start in the next 24 months next to the MARC parking garage at what is currently a barren strip of asphalt and there's some talk of the plot of land in front of the train station will get bought up and built in the next few years as well, but I think most are waiting to see how the Archstone project pans out before anything else happens.

    rvilleterp

  • The Post also had a great article a few weeks back about "infill" - the old inside-the-Beltway suburbs like Annandale and Wheaton, among others, where you can buy a house cheap, renovate the shit out of it and have a place close in to the city that's still good for a family. All part of the same process, I assume.

    macterp

  • macterp said...

    The Post also had a great article a few weeks back about "infill" - the old inside-the-Beltway suburbs like Annandale and Wheaton, among others, where you can buy a house cheap, renovate the shit out of it and have a place close in to the city that's still good for a family. All part of the same process, I assume.

    Annandale and Wheaton are big melting pots though, and Annandale is heavily Korean. Dont see many retirees wanting to move there.

    How long has the library across from Lake Forest been closed for renovation? Three years?

    sugarmag

  • sugarmag said...

    I'm in my phone so I'll look at that later, but whole "density around Metro" assumes people travel only by Metro which is never true. Wait until the planning says "1 parking space per unit" and everyone has two cars.

    And double LOL at all the new stuff being built on the Strathmore land. Might be part of the master plan but who is selling "from the low 600's" town homes these days?

    Been out of the loop for a few months and forgot my password so I had to establish a new account. Sugar is right, the idea on paper is sound but it will end up being a mess since the county council is clueless. No need to build new schools since most of the people moving in won't have any kids. Don't worry about the traffic since everyone will work where the live so they can walk or ride a bike.
    For the townhomes on Strathmore, they start around $950k and go up to as much as $1.4Mil.

    DrRosensquared1

  • macterp said...

    Annandale... good for a family.

    Does not compute.

    classlessthug: I have too much on my plate to worry about the fact that my junk intimidates some needle D undergrad.

    eamhokie94 ●

  • Dr.Rosensquared said...

    For the townhomes on Strathmore, they start around $950k and go up to as much as $1.4Mil.

    Ouch. You can walk to Addie's at least.

    sugarmag

  • Dr Rosensquared, check pm

    TortugaGrande

  • eamhokie94 said...

    Does not compute.

    If you haven't lived in Annandale-Lincolnia, you just haven't lived.

    PoorMike

  • macterp said...

    The Post also had a great article a few weeks back about "infill" - the old inside-the-Beltway suburbs like Annandale and Wheaton, among others, where you can buy a house cheap, renovate the shit out of it and have a place close in to the city that's still good for a family. All part of the same process, I assume.

    since when is wheaton inside the beltway?

    RDurr ●

  • DC suburbs really are focusing on building high density right around metro stations. It's interesting that there hasn't been any fight against that by the residents of those areas. It's in stark contrast to Baltimore, where there has been a small push for transit oriented development but communities are very much against it. Baltimore obviously doesn't have nearly the same mass transit system in place as DC, but there are areas where such high density development would make sense. They are trying it with Owings Mills, but it really doesn't have anywhere near the high density development that one finds around DC metro stations.

    Columbia doesn't have a transit line but that city/town certainly could use more high density. Towson is another city that comes to mind.

    charmcity3131

  • Could we ever see Columbia with a mass transit station for both DC metro and Baltimore's subway system, in my lifetime? (i'm 27 and healthy, so call it next 50 years)

    “Route 1, where everybody meets.” ~Nick Faust #5

    SkinsTerp

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