Off-Topic

I already had a thread on this topic. I said go for it.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/regime-iran-very-rational-one-former-israeli-intelligence-231418280.html

Former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan, in his first U.S. television interview, says he believes that the Iran regime is rational and that now is not the time to attack Iran.

"The regime in Iran is a very rational one," the former top Israeli spymaster tells CBS' Leslie Stahl, according to excerpts of the interview released by 60 Minutes.

"No doubt, they are considering all the implications of their actions…They will have to pay dearly…and I think the Iranians at this point in time are…very careful on the project," says Dagan. "They are not running."

Another bank shot consideration I've read about is that Israel's not that thrilled with the idea of a potentially hegemonic regime like Turkey deposing Syria and on their doorstep. For all the Syria/Israel hatred, apparently Israel has some appreciation for having a much weaker enemy in Assad than the potential of a surging Turkey as their neighbor.

i guess they solved their refueling issue....by getting rights to iran's neighbor

Yeah I was reading that too. And I do like the idea of a super-secret agreement with the Saudis to use their bases, too. The Saudis can be pragmatic when it's in their interests.

I'd be instantly skeptical of any Israeli newspaper blatantly reporting that the government decided to put off an attack for X months/years. Chances are, that kind of article is more smokescreen or misinformation than anything else, whether the newspaper is in on the ruse or the government's feeding it to them.

Actually we DO know what they are going to do-attack. Israelis are a warlike people. they will fight for what they see a stheir survival.

For those who haven't been following Israeli politics, something pretty monumental happened recently, when Netanyahu surprised the country by announcing a unity government and stopping the process for calling an election. The unity government now controls 78% of the Knesset, and is the largest coalition in Israeli history.

Krauthammer on why this is so important:

****

The Six-Day War is legend, but less remembered is that, four days earlier, the nationalist opposition (Mena­chem Begin’s Likud precursor) was for the first time ever brought into the government, creating an emergency national-unity coalition.

Everyone understood why. You do not undertake a supremely risky preemptive war without the full participation of a broad coalition representing a national consensus.

Forty-five years later, in the middle of the night of May 7-8, 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shocked his country by bringing the main opposition party, Kadima, into a national unity government. Shocking because just hours earlier, the Knesset was expediting a bill to call early elections in September.

Why did the high-flying Netanyahu call off elections he was sure to win?

A series of apparently unconnected military movements observed in Middle East seas and skies in the last tendays have a common factor: introduction of the new US Air Sea Battle (ASB) doctrine, which is designed to make the most of tightly coordinated operations by air, land, sea, undersea, space and cyberspace capabilities for defeating those of the enemy.

Monday, May 14, the day that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal warned Iran not to meddle in the evolving Saudi-Bahraini union, large US Navy and Marine forces put into Jeddah port for first time in 11 years.

...

debkafile’s military sources report that Washington timed the unveiling of the new battle strategy for May 10, two weeks before the Six Power nuclear talks with Iran resume in Baghdad.

US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jon Greenert explained that the ASB concept was developed "to defeat A2AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) strategies such as the closure of the (Hormuz) strait, cyber attack, mines, cruise and ballistic missiles and air defense systems, threats enhanced by technological advancements.”

Our military sources add: The concept is also closely applicable to American tactics for defending the Persian Gulf nations against possible Iranian aggression as the GCC takes its first unification steps to shore up its defenses against that threat.

Isn't the report based on two guys pissed at Netanyahu ? One was retired by him and the other was passed over

IMO Iran will be attacked; it's just a matter of by whom, how and when. There is a quiet alliance within the Middle East (the Saudis, the emirates, etc.) that is working with Israel.

These think tanks that game out a war with Iran will always come to the same conclusion...it's going to get messy, and cost lives. That's what wars do. But the articles don't change the political/diplomatic situation that brings the war about. If there is a cleaner, easier method to force the Iranians to abandon their nuke program, the world has yet to find it...and it's been looking for such a solution for over a decade.