Off-Topic

Yeah it will probably be a shit show, but like you said, one can hope.

this this this. I have no sympathy after seeing so many good people in my field lose their jobs while the government got fatter and lazier.

Nothing personal, bro, but I had two employee of the year awards and ten other merit cash awards for my old company over twelve years but that didn't stop them from "suggesting" that I take an acquisition-related severance when management nuked a ridiculously hard working, effective, but wildly understaffed IT department. That is now almost four times as big in personnel as we were in 2008 yet far less effective because of all the unethical lying idiots that replaced us. And resulted in three of the five upper management folks getting fired in 2009 - the real cancer of the department is still employed there...

When I lost my job, my eldest was about two weeks away from starting college out of state; no question it's scary. I do feel for you and hope you make it through ok.

Growth, growth, growth. Sequestration does nothing to the overall economic picture if we keep stumbling along under 2%. I work with feds a lot and know first hand how it cries out for actual management and cuts related to that, but that's not how it works in real life. Every dep't will pick max pain cuts to make the public/congress squeal and reinstate it, so let's just save us the drama.

Boehner offered the Romney plan. Cut the rates and max out deductions at some level or other. That concept has rattled around in an O plan or two as well. It's sound. Make it score as revenue neutral (or even plus revenue), but watch growth tick up and do more for deficit reduction than any sequestration can do.

Just a taste...again, we're headed for sequestration unless there is something to replace it, which would be painful in different ways. I'm willing to hear any alternatives, but unless there are any, we're stuck with things like this:

Austerity is necessary in Europe, which is why they're doing it. The pains from having to shrink the social welfare state are always going to be there, and maybe we can learn from what they're going through...because it's becoming increasingly necessary for us, too.

This is pretty much what I said on the first page. Better to go through a little pain now, than a total debacle in a few years.

It's not going to be popular, but it needs to be done. And that's exactly why it won't be done.

Arsenal,

Our borrowing costs may be low, but what happens when our lending pool dries up?

Yeah we were told that 2% growth is amazing and proof of a robust recovery

borrowing costs being low are part of the problem which has created the large debt bubble. Look what happened to the housing market. Low interest loans lured people in to borrow more than they could afford. Even at low interest rates the interest we pay on the debt is soon going to pass the DoD as the largest line item. And what happens when inflation hits? What happens when countries realize our credit doesn't justify low interest bonds? We'll have to pay a ton more in interest and as that happens our credit will only get downgraded again. Its a downward spiral that can't be stopped. If you don't think we have a long term debt problem you've obviously been drinking the Kool Aid.
No one ever wants to cut spending because it will limit short term growth. Its easy to point to history and show that stimulus spurs the econonmy. however, what those graphs don't show is what happens in the future when a country has borrowed more than it can afford. I grow tired of morons on the news who dont know jack shit about how markets work screaming for more stimulus spending. They remind me of drug addicts who thing more drugs is the answer to their recovery.

Its long past time that our government starts to tackle spending and the entitlement programs. I'd love to see a balance budget amendment used a bargaining chip.

no increases in tax rates for anyone. thats the battle line. boehner, cantor & co need to stand their ground and hold the gop together on this. punishing people for having succeeded in life is patently unamerican. we do not have a revenue problem!

if we go over the cliff so be it. this country is a like an alcoholic, drunk on spending. we may need to hit rock bottom before we can recover.

Unfortunately sequestration wouldn't just affect those fat, bloated government workers. It would probably kill the US economy for the near term and would definitely cause Europe to go into deep recession. We all know what's happened with the PIIGS, but even Germany and France are starting to show cracks and are in precarious positions. If the US all of a sudden cuts spending drastically, that would affect a ton of German companies and probably sink their economic Bismarck.

Obviously not saying that we can go on with the status quo, but there is always a better solution than just cutting across the board. Entitlements need to be addressed, but for me, one of the areas that needs to be addressed is federal government rules and regulations. The bureacratic nature of these entities is insane and adds layers of costs and delays onto projects and just running the organization.

Among those areas that need to be addressed most significantly is personnel. I spoke with the head of OPM this time last year and, while he didn't come out and say this, you could tell that he was completely disheartened by how hard it was to get anything done at all. Just discussing the personnel practices with friends of mine, it's completely asinine how much work it wakes to hire someone and obviously lol at trying to fire someone. I know gment workers get a bad rap overall and it isn't deserved in some cases, but it is certainly deserved in a large number of them. We're not going to fix anything in government until we fix the entitlement culture of both the citizens and the employees.

If possible, I'd like to have sex with Carmen Reinhart's brain.