Off-Topic

If I were Christie I would sit this one out. Obama is still likely to win barring a full on depression part deux, especially against this bunch of losers.

He can then promise to serve only one term as governor, earning him credit as the straight talker/non-political guy, etc., wield his budget axe, hope that when the economy recovers he can take credit for it because of his cuts, etc., then spend his post-gov years getting ready for a 2016 run as the probable front runner. The Dem candidates will be new and relatively unknown, since Hil will probably be too old, Biden as well, and there isn't a whole ton of talent on the bench.

She said as recently as yesterday, she hasn't ruled it out. As you obviously agree with, she is as qualified as our current President. That said, I don't think she will run because she doesn't want to take the pay cut. Although if she ran and won she could take a 5 million dollar book advance a week or so before being sworn into office.

I think we'll be surprised and see everyone coalesce around a nominee quickly. My guess is Daniels or Huntsman

Trump intrigues me, but I'm afraid he would be a disaster in foreign affairs. I think Newt gets a bad wrap. The rest of those that are declared are awful, but I find it hard to believe Obama wins another term, no matter how many awful candidates the Republicans trot out.

He was going to try once before. Maybe in 96 or something. Had a lot of great ideas for the economy and how we are getting screwed by other countries because we always try to play fair and get cheated. Just recently he was saying the WTO screws us all the time. AirBus was cheating by getting govt funds and that isn't allowed. Well the US won the suit but it took over 10 years to win and by that time boeing had lost tons of business. At this point in the game I think he more or less just a clown looking to promote himself. He's not to be taken seriously. I would pick some other business guy like bill gates, paul allen, Dell or someone like that before I would pick him.

The only Pub that should scare Obama is Marco Rubio. That dude has serious chops and will be President one day.

If it ends quickly then it has to be for Romney. Politically, he has the most robust organization by FAR, and any insurgents like the two you mentioned don't have natural constituencies in the early states. Iowa will go for a social right crazy person or Huckabee, I'm not sure anyone can beat Romney in NH (he basically lives there now), NV is whatever and SC is insane and could go anywhere.

I think it's going to come down to a somebody and Romney by the time they get to the bigger states, and the best thing for those guys to do is to become that somebody. Though I think Pawlenty is most likely to be that guy, but if a Daniels or Hunstman can survive that long, they can start to make the general election argument and both have one to make.

There are a lot of Dems dissatisfied with certain decisions Obama has made, but I wouldn't expect them to start voting Republican, or even to sit out the election. I know because I am one of them. As criticized as Obama has been by the left over Libya and moving to the middle on tax cuts, there are a lot of folks who feel like we are in a lot better place now than we were at the end of W's second term.

That Bachmann or Palin actually believe they can get elected is a never-ending source of amusement to me.

I agree, I don't see him winning. But he's so far out in front in terms of organization and fundraising, and he came in 2nd last time, and the Pubs historically always nominate the next guy in line. He won't win, but he will certainly be the last guy standing who isn't the nominee. So like I said, with the jumbled field behind him, it's all about being the other guy. And I don't know who the tea people and the social conservatives will settle on, because there isn't a one size fits all candidate out there.

I don't think Christie will rub people the right way when/if he goes national. I know he's already gotten a ton of exposure but not like he'd get if he were getting head to head against Obama. I like Christie because he's not very PC but compared to Obama, he would probably come off as an oaf. I think it would be a close race, but I would be willing to bet he wouldn't beat Obama.

I'm pretty dissatisfied at this point with every Pub candidate presented. I may vote for zombie RR.

Washington Post Style section article from a week or so back. It was pretty awesome, and they clearly have whatever the equivalent of "beef" is for rich, white Mormons.

It's like the most polite Biggie/Tupac feud ever.

The fact that most people haven't focused on candidates yet is exactly why the poll on Obama's reelection is more important than the head-to-head polls. Most people have seen Obama in action for over two years now and know whether they like his policies or not. The head-to-head will become meaningful when the Pub field has become one, that candidate has been embraced by the Pubs and the public is able to compare and contrast his/her policies with Obama's.

Regarding Ryan, he probably won't run, but stranger things have happened. There's no reason for him to put his name in now. He has more than enough personality to do fine against Obama. I can see a personality argument with Daniels but not Ryan. Plus, Obama doesn't always come off well when has to defend himself or his record, which he will have to do in 2012, unlike 2008.

If I was a Dem, I would not want to see either Ryan on Christie in 2012. As a Pub, those are my first two choices. Just my opinion.