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Official SCOTUS Thread (Prop 8, DOMA arguments)

  • sniper_terp said...

    I said $250 and its possible. 4 years ago it was 400 for me and my son. Even if thats too low, up the price it costs. It will be 100x better than whats happening now and cheaper.

    I was replying to 1thegame's post, not yours.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • Kaisersayzo said...

    ....doesn't it just make sense that a freak accident can't cause a family to lose everything in a heartbeat?....while battling something like rehab?

    Yes. You just can't make them buy something if they don't want to. Its really just that simple.

    sniper_terp

  • tecmoHOOperbowl said...

    I was replying to 1thegame's post, not yours.

    oops. sorry.

    sniper_terp

  • [couch]

    HooEver

  • I really like how so many here are entirely convinced in the unconstitutionality of the provision, even given the overwhelming majority of legal scholars and jurists who say otherwise

    There's a small chance it will fall, no doubt. But to call it anything other than that is lolworthy, political opinions aside. This isn't 1905 and Lochner has been dead for three quarters of a century.

    But by all means, continue in the rabid march to conclusory statements

    rewsde

  • rewsde said...

    I really like how so many here are entirely convinced in the unconstitutionality of the provision, even given the overwhelming majority of legal scholars and jurists who say otherwise

    There's a small chance it will fall, no doubt. But to call it anything other than that is lolworthy, political opinions aside. This isn't 1905 and Lochner has been dead for three quarters of a century.

    But by all means, continue in the rabid march to conclusory statements

    I think "so many here" are saying it SHOULD be unconstitutional under an appropriate interpretation of the Constitution, if we were deciding the issue without being bound by prior Supreme Court precedent. I think the "overwhelming majority of legal scholars and jurists" are making predictions about how the Supreme Court will in fact rule on the case, not whether those scholars and jurists think it SHOULD be upheld. This is actually my view on the matter - there's no question in my mind that Obamacare SHOULD be struck down, but I think there's probably a 10-15% chance that actually happens at SCOTUS.

    I'm not sure why you're citing Lochner - that case involved the due process clause of the 14th Amendment. The debate over ObamaCare is about the scope of Congress' powers under the Commerce Clause.

    MisterNiceGuy

  • Kaisersayzo said...

    To clarify...the 250K was a bill for 19 days in the hospital, the surgeries, the helicopter and the months of rehab he's been doing from home with in-home nurses. If his stroke would have been serious (it really didn't affect him very much thank Scott) then the hospital stay would have been much longer and he would have had to have brain surgery and the fee would have been WAY over 500k....probably close to a million.

    To clarify more....his accident was the result of a tree falling on his car during a crazy summer storm while he was stopped in traffic. I bring this up to show that this stuff can happen to anybody and I'm pretty sure we can't mandate trees to check for insurance cards prior to pinning them in the car while breaking their necks.

    IMO...and I know it's my opinion...it just makes more sense that everyone have insurance. Take away for a minute that uninsured people f*ck up my taxes....doesn't it just make sense that a freak accident can't cause a family to lose everything in a heartbeat?....while battling something like rehab?

    So I take it you are for mandatory Life insurance for every person too right? Cause I can give you the exact same scenario for people that dont have life insurance.

    rthhokie92

  • rewsde said...

    I really like how so many here are entirely convinced in the unconstitutionality of the provision, even given the overwhelming majority of legal scholars and jurists who say otherwise

    There's a small chance it will fall, no doubt. But to call it anything other than that is lolworthy, political opinions aside. This isn't 1905 and Lochner has been dead for three quarters of a century.

    But by all means, continue in the rabid march to conclusory statements

    Were you sick the day they taught law at law school? Most of the legal scholars are divided on this issue...split down the - not surprisingly - school of thought about expansion of the Commerce Clause/Fed Govt lines.

    In fact, I dare say more legal scholar thought says this individual mandate might be good "policy"....but its the most gruesome expansion since Wickard. You dont see many legal scholars hold up Wickard as this great and wise decision. Its attacked probably more than it is defended.

    Lochner ad the 14th Amendment has nothing to do with this....we are talking about the Commerce Clause under Art 1. So Im not sure your point.

    Moreover....if by "small chance" it will fail you mean about 50 - 50 it fails...or even 60 - 40 then you are right. Kennedy will, without a doubt, be the swing vote. This isnt a social conservative issue where Kennedy is all over the map. He is pretty consistent on Econ. issues.

    This post was edited by rthhokie92 on 12/14/2010 at 3:16 PM

    rthhokie92

  • sniper_terp said...

    I'm not sure why we are making this so hard. Lets just say we give everyone $250 a month to buy health insurance from an insurance company if they don't have it. Lets say 30 million have no insurance(i think that's the number right?) that's 90 billion a year. Done and done.

    The fundamental problem with this solution is that it comes from the premise that the uninsured lack insurance because they lack the means to pay for it. President Obama actually cited a figure of 45-47 million uninsured - these are the folks that are racking up hospital bills and making us taxpayers pay for it. However, some 5 million of those are illegal aliens (another 5 million are legal immigrants, but not U.S. citizens). 10 million or so make $75,000 or more, so would seem to have the means to pay for an insurance policy but choose not to. Another 10 million are eligible for existing programs but do not enroll for whatever reason. Other, untold millions are unable to get coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

    MisterNiceGuy

  • rthhokie92 said...

    So I take it you are for mandatory Life insurance for every person too right? Cause I can give you the exact same scenario for people that dont have life insurance.

    Tell me how this scenario is fixed then. Tell me how Joe Blow without insurance who has a 500k accident will be held responsible without touching my tax dollars. You come up with the plan and I'll stand right behind you. Tell me why I should have to pay for him because he refused insurance. Take his house, his possessions, everything and you're still short...so then what? Dude goes into bankruptcy (that we end up paying for), possibly goes on disability (which we pay for), goes into federally paid for government programs (that we pay for) and then on the streets where he contributes nothing to society. Wouldn't it just be easier, cheaper, and more productive if Joe Dumbass just had Health Insurance?

    9/21/2010...RIP Old IMS.

    Kaisersayzo

  • rewsde said...

    I really like how so many here are entirely convinced in the unconstitutionality of the provision, even given the overwhelming majority of legal scholars and jurists who say otherwise

    There's a small chance it will fall, no doubt. But to call it anything other than that is lolworthy, political opinions aside. This isn't 1905 and Lochner has been dead for three quarters of a century.

    But by all means, continue in the rabid march to conclusory statements

    attachment

    sniper_terp

  • MisterNiceGuy said...

    The fundamental problem with this solution is that it comes from the premise that the uninsured lack insurance because they lack the means to pay for it. President Obama actually cited a figure of 45-47 million uninsured - these are the folks that are racking up hospital bills and making us taxpayers pay for it. However, some 5 million of those are illegal aliens (another 5 million are legal immigrants, but not U.S. citizens). 10 million or so make $75,000 or more, so would seem to have the means to pay for an insurance policy but choose not to. Another 10 million are eligible for existing programs but do not enroll for whatever reason. Other, untold millions are unable to get coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

    Thanks for that. I still think it can be done this way I just need more information.

    This post was edited by sniper_terp on 12/14/2010 at 3:36 PM

    sniper_terp

  • Kaisersayzo said...

    Tell me how this scenario is fixed then. Tell me how Joe Blow without insurance who has a 500k accident will be held responsible without touching my tax dollars. You come up with the plan and I'll stand right behind you. Tell me why I should have to pay for him because he refused insurance. Take his house, his possessions, everything and you're still short...so then what? Dude goes into bankruptcy (that we end up paying for), possibly goes on disability (which we pay for), goes into federally paid for government programs (that we pay for) and then on the streets where he contributes nothing to society. Wouldn't it just be easier, cheaper, and more productive if Joe Dumbass just had Health Insurance?

    Sometimes the only solutions to a problem are worse than the problem itself.

    MisterNiceGuy

  • sniper_terp said...

    Thanks for that. I still think it can be done this way I just need more information.

    What other information do you need?

    MisterNiceGuy

  • Kaisersayzo said...

    Tell me how this scenario is fixed then. Tell me how Joe Blow without insurance who has a 500k accident will be held responsible without touching my tax dollars. You come up with the plan and I'll stand right behind you. Tell me why I should have to pay for him because he refused insurance. Take his house, his possessions, everything and you're still short...so then what? Dude goes into bankruptcy (that we end up paying for), possibly goes on disability (which we pay for), goes into federally paid for government programs (that we pay for) and then on the streets where he contributes nothing to society. Wouldn't it just be easier, cheaper, and more productive if Joe Dumbass just had Health Insurance?

    Maybe easier.....but a constutitional democracy doesnt work on whats easier. (Actually...the cost is past on in higher premiums and higher cost of services....not tax dollars. So it impacts other people that use medical services and not those that chose not to)

    The point being...the same exact argument can be made for someone lacking Life insurance. Dude has 2 or 3 kids...make a good living of say...100K...maybe even 150K. He owns a house and two cars. No Life insurance. He dies. Boom. No life insurance and little to no liquid savings. Wife cant afford the house...house gets taken. HAve a hard time making ends meet...food stamps and other forms of public assistance. Should we manadate everyone must buy term life insurance? It sure would be easier. Heck premiums would go down for everyone...because all adults would be in the market.

    BTW....unisured people arent getting 500K worth of treatment for the most part. But lets assume they do all get treatment for the unexpected tree falling. With health insurance coverage....we are paying for that ....AND MORE.

    We are paying for fertility treatments. We are paying for autism therapy. We are paying for hemroids. etc. etc. The cost is even more. The fiction that we will be "saving" money by preventive care vs. spending on emergency/diaster care is pretty well debunked by lots of folks. Krauthammer had a very good article a ahile back on it. Only way it works would be some serious serious rationing. No way thats going to happen.

    rthhokie92

  • bmacumd said...

    Okay, I'm going to seriously respond to somebody who thinks "Living Constitution" theory reminds them of a Disney movie based on a ride at Disney World?

    So the only time our federal government does anything is if there is an amendment to do so?

    Also, as much as auto insurance is mandated by individual states, most state require motorists to have car insurance. Some states are stricter then others for what is required. Nobody screams about this, or their screams fall on deaf ears.

    I fundamentally would be opposed to this for the following reasons. There are too many states who would refuse to enact mandatory health insurance. Why? Because they are literally dumb and uneducated. These same state legislatures are so backwards they want creationism to be taught in the classroom and our country will be a bunch split between educated people in the northeast (those with reputable college degrees and understandings that the world does not revolve around a religious fable) and those who think the world was created in 7 days and a 300 year old man lived inside of a whale. If you literally believe that the world was created in 7 days then your opinion does not count in anything that affects others. Period. End of story.

    So, yes, I know our founders (community organizers, elitists) would laugh at these f'ing rednecks and half-ass law school grads like Ken Cuccinelli who are backwards to common sense on 75% of real issues.

    I've been avoiding this thread and will continue to, but I wanted to address these comments. The federal government is SUPPOSED to be limited in its powers, that was the intent of the founders. If the "f'ing rednecks" in one state do something stupid, the citizens of that state are free to either throw them out of office, or move to another, less "f'ing redneck" state.

    When the federal government in all of its wisdom does something equally stupid - and it does, all of the time - where may the citizen go to get away from the stupid, overbearing federal government? And vote out federal regulators? Hell, you can't even FIRE those nimrods.

    SATerp

  • MisterNiceGuy said...

    What other information do you need?

    Well like the exact stats on the uninsured. If a lot of them can't afford it because of a previous condition than that would be moot under the current law. You could make the insurance cheaper by doing a tort reform and allowing insurance companies to see across state lines. I just don't think there is a situation where the govt can handle this better than private industry but still think it needs to be done. I also don't think it should ever be free. You should always need a co-payment. People who get things 100% free tend to abuse them.

    Probably a different topic but if an immigrant wants to come over they have to pay into the system to get out from the system. And Obama said health insurance won't be giving to illegals so that's not an issue.

    sniper_terp

  • Kaisersayzo said...

    Tell me how this scenario is fixed then. Tell me how Joe Blow without insurance who has a 500k accident will be held responsible without touching my tax dollars. You come up with the plan and I'll stand right behind you. Tell me why I should have to pay for him because he refused insurance. Take his house, his possessions, everything and you're still short...so then what? Dude goes into bankruptcy (that we end up paying for), possibly goes on disability (which we pay for), goes into federally paid for government programs (that we pay for) and then on the streets where he contributes nothing to society. Wouldn't it just be easier, cheaper, and more productive if Joe Dumbass just had Health Insurance?

    I gotta say, I dont usually agree with much that you have to say on these kinds of threads, but I'm with you 100% on this one.

    1thegame

  • sniper_terp said...

    Well like the exact stats on the uninsured. If a lot of them can't afford it because of a previous condition than that would be moot under the current law. You could make the insurance cheaper by doing a tort reform and allowing insurance companies to see across state lines. I just don't think there is a situation where the govt can handle this better than private industry but still think it needs to be done. I also don't think it should ever be free. You should always need a co-payment. People who get things 100% free tend to abuse them.

    Probably a different topic but if an immigrant wants to come over they have to pay into the system to get out from the system. And Obama said health insurance won't be giving to illegals so that's not an issue.

    All I'm saying is that JUST doing a subsidy like you suggested isn't likely to solve the problem because the problem for 2/3 or more of the uninsured population is not a lack of funds. Yes, the current law prohibits denial of coverage to those with pre-existing conditions, but you can't have that prohibition without the individual mandate, otherwise people would just wait to get sick to get coverage.

    I agree with you on tort reform and allowing insurance companies to sell across state lines, but again to the extent that those things reduce the cost of health insurance they won't do much to reduce the uninsured rolls if the majority of people are on there due to something other than inability to pay for coverage.

    MisterNiceGuy

  • TortugaGrande said...

    Does it make sense for everyone to have insurance? Probably. The question is, do you think it makes sense for the the federal government to force everyone to have insurance? I would really like to know your answer to this.

    i know you didnt ask me, but....

    If the fed govt is on the hook for the costs, then yes, the fed govt has a right and responsibility to protect the taxpayers also.

    Look, the reality is that this problem is getting worse, not better. Medical costs are rising, rising unemployment means more and more people without health insurance, medical advances/people living longer means people require more care for longer. Obesity rates are going through the damn roof. This thing is exploding on us and I dont want to get stuck holding the bag here. The status quo is not sustainable, there is no choice but to come up with a real solution....

    1thegame

  • MisterNiceGuy said...

    All I'm saying is that JUST doing a subsidy like you suggested isn't likely to solve the problem because the problem for 2/3 or more of the uninsured population is not a lack of funds. Yes, the current law prohibits denial of coverage to those with pre-existing conditions, but you can't have that prohibition without the individual mandate, otherwise people would just wait to get sick to get coverage.

    I agree with you on tort reform and allowing insurance companies to sell across state lines, but again to the extent that those things reduce the cost of health insurance they won't do much to reduce the uninsured rolls if the majority of people are on there due to something other than inability to pay for coverage.

    If they can get it at work they can't get it from the govt. Other people get it free. If you choose not to take free insurance than you get what you get. You can never protect everyone from themselves no matter what you do.

    sniper_terp

  • rthhokie92 said...

    Were you sick the day they taught law at law school? Most of the legal scholars are divided on this issue...split down the - not surprisingly - school of thought about expansion of the Commerce Clause/Fed Govt lines.

    In fact, I dare say more legal scholar thought says this individual mandate might be good "policy"....but its the most gruesome expansion since Wickard. You dont see many legal scholars hold up Wickard as this great and wise decision. Its attacked probably more than it is defended.

    Lochner ad the 14th Amendment has nothing to do with this....we are talking about the Commerce Clause under Art 1. So Im not sure your point.

    Moreover....if by "small chance" it will fail you mean about 50 - 50 it fails...or even 60 - 40 then you are right. Kennedy will, without a doubt, be the swing vote. This isnt a social conservative issue where Kennedy is all over the map. He is pretty consistent on Econ. issues.

    bro I'm at UVA right now (which happens to be the most legally conservative school outside of chicago).

    I know what Lochner is and we both know it is representative of a dead "era" aka the LOCHNER ERA of conservative constitutional interpretation wiped off the map between 1934 and 1942. Don't play the f***ing retard

    I don't know what fantasy world you live but no chance more than 5-10% of judges and professors are arguing that this is even a close issue. Calling it 50/50 is borderline lunacy. Even the hardcore libertarians on Volokh realize this is an unlikely case

    kennedy was in the majority in raich, fwiw

    did you even read the opinion? Hudson had to ignore comstock to get around N&P. i doubt scotus is ready to overturn itself after 2 yrs

    rewsde

  • rewsde said...

    bro I'm at UVA right now (which happens to be the most legally conservative school outside of chicago).

    lololololololol

    Sorry. I really can't comment on this thread because of where I work but this is HILARIOUS. UVA Law isn't even the most conservative law school in Virginia. Probably not even top three... hell top five.

    HooEver

  • Not to carry us further away from the constitutionality of ObamaCare (which is what this thread was ostensibly about) and toward the policy arguments, but there's this issue. Apart from the costs and difficulties of actually enforcing the individual mandate, it is entirely up for debate whether the penalties in Obamacare are sufficient to deter people from just waiting until they get sick and then purchasing coverage. The penalties for individuals are $95 or 1% of income, whichever is greater, rising to $695 or 2.5% of income (for families it is $2,085 or 2.5%, whichever is greater). Given the high cost of health insurance premiums, especially for those whose employers do not subsidize it, I can see many people making the calculation that it's cheaper for them to just pay the penalty and then pick up insurance when they really need it (i.e. in the event of a catastrophic injury or chronic condition).

    MisterNiceGuy

  • rewsde said...

    bro I'm at UVA right now (which happens to be the most legally conservative school outside of chicago).

    I know what Lochner is and we both know it is representative of a dead "era" aka the LOCHNER ERA of conservative constitutional interpretation wiped off the map between 1934 and 1942. Don't play the f***ing retard

    I don't know what fantasy world you live but no chance more than 5-10% of judges and professors are arguing that this is even a close issue. Calling it 50/50 is borderline lunacy. Even the hardcore libertarians on Volokh realize this is an unlikely case

    kennedy was in the majority in raich, fwiw

    did you even read the opinion? Hudson had to ignore comstock to get around N&P. i doubt scotus is ready to overturn itself after 2 yrs

    Yes, I read the opinion. Hudson didnt ignore N&P. N&P is a red herring. Its well decide that N&P only comes into play if the clause/act is otherwise constitutional....otherwise it would far to easy to showhorn unconstitutional regulation on the back of other regulatory schemes and simply rely on necessary and proper. Legal scholars are ceratinly far more split that 5 or 10% on the individual mandate being an unconstitutional expansion of the Commerce Clause. Im not sure if you are spending your time reading which blogs or what.

    UVa really hasnt been that conservative for the last decade. Hell....Mason is more conservative than UVa. Retard on Lochner??? Lochner has nothing to do with this. If you dont think the indiidual mandate surviving is much better than 50-50....you better hurry up and take some 3rd year seminars because it is very much that close. Heck...this case is more closely aligned with the Morrison case. Go read that Commerce Clause decision and get back to me. I wrote a law review note a decade ago on the Morrison case so this is very familiar gorund to me.

    I know Hudson well. I've appeared in front of him and argued cases more than a dozen times. Dude isnt Scalia...but he is brighter than most/many on the District court bench.

    What year at UVa 1L, 2L or 3L?

    rthhokie92