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Fall/Winter Weather Thread (Last Dance, Last Chance, for Snow )

  • reeceg1 said...

    Q, really

    http://scifiempire.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Q-played-by-John-de-Lancie.png

    You know that local weathermen everywhere are champing at the bit over using their puns when Winter Storm Rocky arrives ("One two punch", "Deliver a knockout", etc)

    TerpBE

  • TerpBE said...

    You know that local weathermen everywhere are champing at the bit over using their puns when Winter Storm Rocky arrives ("One two punch", "Deliver a knockout", etc)

    KHHHHAAAANNNN!!!

    Et tu, Brute?

    attachment

    Layman ... Jake Layman!

    reeceg1

  • NOAA winter outlook: Big uncertainty due to fickle El Nino - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

    Since the summer, forecasters have called for El Nino to develop this fall, but so far, it has defied such predictions. El Ninos baffling behavior has left NOAA forecasters scratching their heads and unable to make a solid call about what kind of winter to expect over large parts of the United States.

    www.washingtonpost.com

    Layman ... Jake Layman!

    reeceg1

  • This is potentially of interest to weather folks. A ways out, but it would be quite the phenomenon if it came to pass. Snow in the models as far south as southern VA.

    Historic Storm Possible early Next Week - Raleigh Weather | Examiner.com

    Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name: mso-tstyle-rowba

    www.examiner.com

    tecmoHOOperbowl

  • Yeah, there is this potential "Perfect Storm 2" with a lot of different scenarios and then I also saw a model showing a couple of inches of snow for the Bmore-DC area on Halloween.

    charmcity3131 ●

  • tecmoHOOperbowl said...

    This is potentially of interest to weather folks. A ways out, but it would be quite the phenomenon if it came to pass. Snow in the models as far south as southern VA.

    Unreal. Might be 85 here on Wednesday.

    sugarmag ●

  • It was like 35 this morning and it's going to be 75 this afternoon. Wut.

    A.B.E.

    historicus

  • Reminds me a bit of last year around Halloween when that big storm hit the northeast and it was very warm just a day or two before the event. I think it went from the 70's down into the 20's and 30's in some spots. I think we just got a chilly rain with some flakes at the end.

    charmcity3131 ●

  • charmcity3131 said...

    Reminds me a bit of last year around Halloween when that big storm hit the northeast and it was very warm just a day or two before the event. I think it went from the 70's down into the 20's and 30's in some spots. I think we just got a chilly rain with some flakes at the end.

    That was October 29th, it was freezing rain at about 35 degrees with some snow here and there

    This post was edited by historicus on 10/22/2012 at 12:49 PM

    A.B.E.

    historicus

  • terpfan1 said...

    I think it's just the abundance of stink bugs. They are getting big and fat on those suckers. But I do like the theory however.

    I didn't see a stink bug all year until about a month ago. Spiders got fat and happy before that.

    parlay ●

  • charmcity3131 said...

    Yeah, there is this potential "Perfect Storm 2" with a lot of different scenarios and then I also saw a model showing a couple of inches of snow for the Bmore-DC area on Halloween.

    Buzz building over possible Halloween nor'easter

    Buzz is building among meteorologists that a tropical system that could be named Sandy could swipe the East Coast.

    www.baltimoresun.com

    Layman ... Jake Layman!

    reeceg1

  • Wrong thread, oops.

    This post was edited by PantsEnFuego on 10/22/2012 at 2:57 PM

    PantsEnFuego ●

  • Euro still likes the idea of an epic storm. GFS warming some to it, but still too hard to see how the factors will interact.

    Regardless, here is the Euro clown map. Not going to happen since ground temps I'm sure would be too warm but it's fun to look at anyways, but if this storm hits east coast it means it phased with the cold front and cold air would get south and wrapped around the storm (it wouldn't be tropical when it hits land most likely)

    attachment

    jt082005

  • I came here to post about the storm blog posting in CWG, but will instead also comment on the sheer number of acorns in my neighborhood. I was walking down one of the side streets and it was raining acorns on to people's car who had parked on the street. I thought to myself there's no chance I don't get pegged and got about 20 feet to the end of the block until I get biffed in the head with one. Fucker hurt.

    That is all.

    CuseTerp

  • Models are trending toward the storm slamming somewhere into the East Coast. The Euro and Canadian models continue to show a Perfect Storm scenario hitting somwhere around Long Island while the GFS, which has been an outlier showing the storm going out to sea, is trending the storm much closer to the coast now. Still so far out that nothing is even remotely close to certain.

    charmcity3131 ●

  • Models as of this morning are definitely catching onto the storm curving back into the East Coast. The only question is where and how strong. One hurricane model, the GFDL, shows a 932 MB storm plowing into Delaware, which is the equivalent to a robust Cat 4 storm. It shows winds well over 100 MPH just off the coast before they die down as the storm hits the coast. Hurricane winds would still be expected along the coast and even inland.

    This is just one scenario and the worst case that I've seen so far. Other models show it hitting various other points of the coast as a weaker but still very strong storm. Still way too far out to nail down details, but it's a very interesting storm to track.

    charmcity3131 ●

  • charmcity3131 said...

    Models as of this morning are definitely catching onto the storm curving back into the East Coast. The only question is where and how strong. One hurricane model, the GFDL, shows a 932 MB storm plowing into Delaware, which is the equivalent to a robust Cat 4 storm. It shows winds well over 100 MPH just off the coast before they die down as the storm hits the coast. Hurricane winds would still be expected along the coast and even inland.

    This is just one scenario and the worst case that I've seen so far. Other models show it hitting various other points of the coast as a weaker but still very strong storm. Still way too far out to nail down details, but it's a very interesting storm to track.

    Doug Hill on WTOP this morning, "there is a complex situation developing for Sunday we are going to have to watch closely." These guys are terrified to say anything now.

    sugarmag ●

  • sugarmag said...

    Doug Hill on WTOP this morning, "there is a complex situation developing for Sunday we are going to have to watch closely." These guys are terrified to say anything now.

    All the weatherman seem to be a little nervous about this storm. I think the east coast is going to get slammed.

    Layman ... Jake Layman!

    reeceg1

  • Article/Comments from the Capital Weather gang...

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MocoLunchbox on 10/24/2012 at 9:23 AM

    Tropical storm Sandy scenarios: Northeast smash or out to sea most likely - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

    Some computer models continue to simulate a crushing storm for early next week near or close to the East Coast. The explosive storm develops as tropical storm (or hurricane) Sandy merges with a powerful cold front charging towards the East Coast late this weekend.

    www.washingtonpost.com

    MocoLunchbox

  • There is no way this happens.

    54321A ●

  • Sandy now a hurricane. 80 mph winds.

    charmcity3131 ●

  • CWG update:

    The deterministic runs from the various global models continue to diverge, with some still showing a track out to sea (GFS and CMC) and some showing a more northerly track into the northeast U.S. coast (ECMWF and NOGAPS). It’s unclear yet which will verify, if any, but the ensembles have been trending westward, with more members now showing a very powerful cyclone (probably not completely tropical) slamming into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states.

    The ominous forecast by last night’s ECMWF deterministic run places an incredibly strong cyclone off the New Jersey coast on Monday evening... with tropical storm to hurricane force winds covering every state between Virginia and Maine (note that the wind speeds on this map are at 5,000’ altitude, not the surface). A scenario such as this would be devastating: a huge area with destructive winds, extensive inland flooding, possibly heavy snow on the west side, and severe coastal flooding and erosion.

    Sandy strengthens to hurricane on approach to Jamaica; odds of East Coast impact grow - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

    As of 11 a.m. this morning, Sandys 10th hurricane. This large, strengthening system may threaten the East Coast of the U.S. although there is a chance the storm turns out to sea before reaching the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

    www.washingtonpost.com

    jsh ●

  • jsh said...

    CWG update:

    The deterministic runs from the various global models continue to diverge, with some still showing a track out to sea (GFS and CMC) and some showing a more northerly track into the northeast U.S. coast (ECMWF and NOGAPS). It’s unclear yet which will verify, if any, but the ensembles have been trending westward, with more members now showing a very powerful cyclone (probably not completely tropical) slamming into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. The ominous forecast by last night’s ECMWF deterministic run places an incredibly strong cyclone off the New Jersey coast on Monday evening... with tropical storm to hurricane force winds covering every state between Virginia and Maine (note that the wind speeds on this map are at 5,000’ altitude, not the surface). A scenario such as this would be devastating: a huge area with destructive winds, extensive inland flooding, possibly heavy snow on the west side, and severe coastal flooding and erosion.

    What is Sheehan saying on his show or the TK show?

    sugarmag ●

  • sugarmag said...

    Doug Hill on WTOP this morning, "there is a complex situation developing for Sunday we are going to have to watch closely." These guys are terrified to say anything now.

    In a world where Italy just sent 6 of its scientists to jail for failing to predict an earthquake, this is understandable.

    indianajones4 ●

  • indianajones4 said...

    In a world where Italy just sent 6 of its scientists to jail for failing to predict an earthquake, this is understandable.

    As much as people (correctly) make fun of various American politicians for their ludicrous scientific views, we pale in comparison to this. What an insane story. I hope Italy enjoys all their scientists moving abroad.

    tecmoHOOperbowl

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