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David Ignatius gets it.
Obama has to lift his game.
Some in the GOP are now threatening to allow a short government shutdown during the debt ceiling debate. In the past, that's always been bluster.
Not sure where to put this, but this is the most important article you will read all day:
I'm not sure always means what you think it means.
If I was a handicapper, I would put the probability of a shutdown during the budget debate at around 90%. It's clear that Boehner has no where to go. He can't/won't negotiate a long term deal with the White House. He can't/won't negotiate a deal with Reid. His own party barely trusts him. He has to do something to get credibility back with his own caucus and really the only way to do that is to take the extreme position on the upcoming budget which will be unable to pass the Senate, or get signed by the President, thereby shutting down the government. The next 3 months are all about positioning to try to blame the other side.
Toomey, for one.
But there are other signs. Pat Toomey is already puffing his chest out in damage control to say the GOP must now be willing to shoot the hostage . . . er . . . shut it down for spending cuts. Specifically, Toomey tells Joe Scarborough, “We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary partial government shutdown, which is what that could mean, and insist that we get off the road to Greece because that’s the road we’re on now.”
First of all, I hope so. But have they boxed themselves in? Consider that the fiscal cliff deal is playing badly with lots of folks, not just partisan
Boehner's already saying he's resolved to act within Congress and let the House speak for itself, rather than doing these 1-on-1's. That's as it should be, of course. (This is assuming he survives any leadership challenge).
The GOP was a little frustrated in how they were fed their strategy from behind closed doors by the leadership, so it's good to hear Congress will be acting as a body with many voices again (in the process, not just the result).
Yeah, that's not-so-subtle code for I'm not going to negotiate. That's just not how government works. There are 3 branches. Boehner only runs half of the Congress. He has a responsibility to compromise with the other two. He has officially announced he is going to neglect his responsibility. Then you guys are going to blame Obama for a "failure of leadership" because that's the only way you can figure to blame him. Lather, rinse, repeat. It's not that hard to figure out what's going to happen.
Well he obviously can't control anything about what Reid does in the Senate, and negotiations with Obama are even less relevant (I think Obama would be really hurting himself by vetoing anything Congress passes on the debt ceiling), so I'm not sure what negotiations are supposed to occur here. He runs the House, and can only pass what a majority of the House votes for.
Not really much point in negotiating with himself. Obama led the way with his claims that he's not going to negotiate the debt ceiling (something that can't be true).
This post was edited by frode 15 months ago
Would love to see the House start passing a bunch of spending cut bills. Just start small with obviously misplaced, duplicative spending etc. and it puts pressure on the Senate and President.
There's the flaw in your reasoning. The majority of the House can pass quite a bit if he works with the democrats (Pelosi). So this is his choice.
You just basically agreed with me. He's resolved to acting within the House. And there's no flaw in my reasoning that the House passes what the majority votes for.
First of all happy new year's gentlemen.
Spent the fiscal cliff fishing in Turks and Caicos. This physical cliff there drops from 100 feet to 5000 feet deep roughly 1 mile off shore.
And congratulations to all of my liberal friends here on the ass kicking delivered on the fiscal cliff "negotiations"
On the substance of your post sohlman, Obama has not shown any willingness to negotiate, nor should these (or any) negotiations be 1 on 1 at the 11th hour.
Obama actually did this correctly in 2010, when he established the debt commission. And he should do something similar to that now. But I just don't see that happening. On Obama's lack of leadership, it has been pointed out multiple time throughout this thread that after the election, Obama basically spent 7 weeks campainging, with mostly no talks at all taking place.
And if I was a liberal, why would Obama change anything? His strategy ultimately won.
The time to strike a comprehensive deal has passed. And we had 14 months to figure it out, yet continue to kick the can down the road on spending, with the real issue being entitlements, with Medicare being the biggest issue.
Boehner's changing tactics because he has too. His previous tactics did not work.
Simpson and Bowles jointly issued a statement on this that was right on the mark.
This post was edited by terp11 15 months ago
Shutting the gov't down means nothing, not raising the debt ceiling is what matters. If House GOP lets that happen they are going to wreck the economy and get obliterated in the midterms. And they're just crazy enough to do it anyway.
This post was edited by PaulUMD 15 months ago
So you think John Boehner will enter into negotiations with Nancy Pelosi?
Toomey is correct. And I agree with sohlman's prediction of 90% chance of shut down. I also think and hope we sill see serious negotiation occur between the House and Senate on the debt ceiling and spending cuts (and hopefully entitlement reform). I think there are some members in congress from both parties that recognize our spending problem and want to do something about it and now recognize the only possible way to get something done about it is to keep Obama out of the negotiations and simply pass him a bill at the end to sign. No Dems in congress will say this but that will be constructively how congress moves forward from now on with the serious negotiations.
This post was edited by Bradleyfan 15 months ago
I wouldn't mind if Obama stayed out of the negotiation, but LOL at counting on the clowns in Congress to get anything done.
I don't think it's possible to get spending cuts out of Obama. Any shrinking of government is against his philosophy. Kudos to the GOP if they can find a way to get some though.
Go away, KA!
Without Obama we'd still be over the fiscal cliff, because Reid was done with McConnell so he had to call Biden. More likely the House will have to wait for the Senate to move first, since the Biden/McConnell relationship seems to work. Boehner and Obama just can't stand each other and House Rs won't move unless made to.
Interesting article. Perhaps deserves its own thread?
Still waiting on Obama's long term deficit reduction plan btw.
Perhaps, but let's hope you're wrong as that's our only realy shot at getting something meaningful done.
If the negotiations can be done without Obama and Reid, then there's a real shot. FTR, I negotiate all the time in my profession and if I "spiked the ball" the way Obama did in his pre-deal, press conference I would be despised. And frankly, I would probably have lost some good deals for my clients. Even though I know the left loved it, it was ridiculous and unprofessional behavior, even from a politician. I'm sure this, as well as Obama telling Boehner the $800 billion in new tax revenue he offered got him zippo, didn't help the relationship between the two.
Reid was not done with McConnell, McConnell needed the cover and look that he was negotiating directly with the White House to elevate him to get the vote through. Btw, in return Reid got about 100 confirmations that were being held up through yesterday with votes of 100-0 with no one watching and the consent of McConnell. More great C-Span yesterday as Harry Reid was by himself in the Chamber going through these candidates with no one opposing.
On top of that I don't think the problem is the relationship between Boehner and Obama, as much as if it looks to the GOP caucas that Boehner worked with Obama at all they will vote down whatever comes out of it and he will get booted. IF he gets re-elected speaker this will change a little bit for the upcoming fiscal cliff negotiations.
Obama has said he won't negotiate debt ceiling, and he will stick to that. They will negotiate around the upcoming sequestration issues. The precedent set last time of negotiating paying our bills is not something that should become a pattern in this country.
Oh come on. What a bunch of crybabies the right has become. Obama hears more mean things said about him every day. It's part of the job.
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