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I think that both of these issues were problems to begin with, no doubt about it.
For Spain, though, the bigger problem was that the overinvested in Latin America and waaaay overleveraged themselves (btw, debt to GDP ratio of almost all European countries are waaaay bigger than ours in the US). When that money started drying up, Spain was screwed.
The overall problem, again, is that they overleveraged/overborrowed.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the solution is austerity, though. The Germans pushed for it because it was their system. They were pretty much the only country in Europe with high savings rates (although they still had big governments, just their citizens, who are notoriously frugal, also saved a ton). It was also, not coincidentally, the solution championed by the financial system because it meant that they would be as protected as they could possibly be.
The point is that basic economics, going back to Keynes, says that if you're struggling financially, you DO NOT cut government spending. Yet that's what everyone did. And now everyone's all surprised that this is causing all these problems!
No offense taken.
As far as having a "meaningful" career, everyone needs to apply their own standards vs the options available to them.
But that's another thread.
Doesn't it also say, don't raise taxes? Yet, that's what Obama is hot to do...
The problem is debt, which is crushing numerous European countries and is becoming a problem here as well.
There are two ways out of debt:
1. Clean up your balance sheet (Lower spending/raising taxes in a government's case)
2. Tell the creditors to fuck off
Taking on more debt doesn't get you out of debt.
I think that's exactly what I'm arguing.
I'm definitely worried that this austerity (aka, sequester) stuff is a terrible idea, not just because it's taking a meat cleaver approach, but because it cuts spending at the worst times and in the worst places.
Ironically, too, the US is actually not nearly as overleveraged as any of these other countries we're talking about. You can make an argument that the PIGS countries do actually need to enact austerity. Much more so than here, that's for sure. They're in crisis zone.
We are not. We just need to be smart.
A better model for comparison is actually the UK. Like us, they were struggling economically but not HORRIBLY like continental Europe. Austerity measures, enacted by the Conservative party, have really retarded economic growth there.
We see it. We know what will happen. Yet all we hear in Washington is CUT NOW, CUT NOW, CUT NOW. Same thing. Great for the financial system, because they are as insulated as they can be. But bad for the people.
Actually that's not nearly as clear-cut. Changes in tax rates have a lot more effects on the macroeconomy than just dropping consumer spending (which it does).
Ironically, Obama's policies show an inclination to cut the deficit, the same way that uber-conservatives are asking us to do. He's just going about it a different way.
From an economic perspective, Keynesians would argue that you should be running a significant deficit right now. Different issue.
Taking on more debt does not get you out of debt, but it does allow you to withstand economic crises.
You're not going to tell the creditors to fuck off. That would destroy the global economy (if it were the US).
And, yes, we must clean up our balance sheet. Everyone with a brain agrees with that. My point is, and has always been, that we need to be very careful with how we do it and we actually might not even want to do it right now. Politicians aren't even making that argument right now because it's very unpopular and special interests/financial interests don't want to hear it anymore, but it's the truth. That's why the sequester is especially stupid.
Few people are genuinely happy with this claymore approach to budget cuts, and you have a right to complain.
It would appear to be about guns and butter again, and this time guns (i.e., you and Proteus) is taking it in the shorts. Just like every other time, the government has failed to make rational decisions in expenditures - and over the last 13 years both parties have failed miserably in that regard. But to me it also appears that Federal, State and Local governments now simply believe citizens are now pretty much viewed as resources to be milked...
Question for you federales - I'm curious. What is the current duration of your desktop/laptop hardware refresh cycle these days? Private industry folks have mostly gone to four years, some have gone to five, and my current laptop is into it's fifth year of service. Or is this even a funnier question than I think, because of stories like the following:
From back in my 8A Defense contractor days. Worked for the Navy's OP-01 (Manpower, Personnel and Training) supporting and developing for an ancient WANG departmental minicomputer that was planned to be replaced by a DEC VAX model. By the time the VAX showed up and was installed and tested, that model had been off maintenance and support by Digital for a year already...
Just saw this post, and it's incredibly wrong. Cuts...yes. Large-scale...no.
Veronique de Rugy writes on NRO: Austerity is destroying Europe, we are told. In fact, this “anti-austerity” slogan was a big reason for the victory of newly elected socialist François Hollande to the presidency of France. Interviewed in The Economist a few weeks ago, Hollande’s campaign director said “We are not disciples of savage spending cuts.”But . . .
Way to post an argument from the National Review to back up your argument.
Look--I'll take it with a grain of salt. That's ONE article that I've seen arguing that Europe has not enacted major austerity cuts. Versus about 20 I've seen that have said that they have.
Don't bother alex with facts.
Thanks for the advice. In that case, I'll just assume Keynesian economics have worked.
You're defending the guy who's saying that Europe has not enacted widespread budget cuts? Really???
Sometimes this place is honestly bizarre-o-land.
You realize I could quote 100 articles that say exactly the opposite and that even his article is an argument against what is common perception? AND it comes from a source that nobody in the world would consider remotely objective.
This post was edited by alexterp 13 months ago
At a certain point, when 100 people are calling you crazy, you have to admit to yourself that maybe those voices in your head aren't actually God and the devil.
Yeah I don't know what it means but I guess DoD is at least going to "put in the work" to show how to keep sequestration level cuts and at least cut back on the current 22 day furlough. At this point we aren't getting letters until April 5. So it will just condense the hit a bit more.
question: alexterp=Imalex from yesteryear?
No, believe it or not.
What's funny is that despite being pretty much identical posters, they used to have some pretty intense arguments.
You get a recording of this little shindig for LeSuque's listening pleasure??
I could prob find it. The DoD goal is to have 700 full time SHARP (sexual harassment) Speaker/trainers by FY14 at GS-11 to GS-14 lol
Their soccer arguments were horrible. More horrible than anything you've seen here.
Lol. True. As I recall, though, imalex was the worst of the two by far.
Yes. I remember him arguing over and over after CR7 went to Real that ManU wasn't a superclub. lol
Well yea, soccer's pretty horrible, eh. :pokesSoccerLuverPaulUMdInDaRibs:
Ain't nuthin' like ice hockey, baby!!!
At $14.3 trillion in debt, the US debt to GDP is 92.7%. The current accumulated debt is $17.4 trillion, and the GDP is not growing at the same pace as spending. Plus that accumulated debt does not consider unfunded future liabilities which are actuarially projected reach an incredible $55-$60 trillion.
There is but one way to stop this head on collision with reality, rework entitlements NOW to reduce future unfunded debt caused by decit spending. Every year this is postponed, the amount of 'fixing' grows as does the pain inflicted to those who had their deal changed.
The United States has the largest debt in the world but other countries face more dire situations.
This post was edited by tagterp 13 months ago
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